Quote:
Originally Posted by sammyj
The EPA is heavily restricting the sale of ICEs past 2032, and CA is banning the sale of a new ICE outright in 2035. Current demand is almost irrelevant at this point, given the influence that the US and Cali markets have overall on vehicle specifications.
We can expect to see a rapid maturing of this market in the next few years, with regards to battery efficiency/ range, charging infrastructure, and something that isn’t talked about much - used EV sales. That last bit - we still have a long way to go in terms of battery recycling, battery health verification (buying a used EV, a buyer would rightfully want to know the condition of the battery), and battery refurbishment/replacement.
I think we will also see an embrace from performance oriented carmakers, and some interesting innovations in “performance dynamics” for EVs.
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Governments change and these tentative dates will 100% be pushed out even if they don’t have a change in government.
Cali can’t even support their existing power needs and have rolling brownouts frequently. Investment in upgrading the grid and charging infrastructure will take
easily 15-20 years across NA.
Also there’s no harmonized regulations around battery recycling and disposal. They literally don’t exist. This is going to be a major problem.
ICE will be safe for a while and billions of dollars will be written down by the automakers. Hybrids are the only viable technology right now to scale at the numbers needed. Toyota’s CEO had it right.