[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by chassis

What is your view?

I would remain data driven. If inflation remains around the 2% mark going forward, I would continue the march towards neutral Fed funds rate.

A data driven approach demands nothing else. I might slow the roll, as I wait on data.

You?

[chassis]

Focus on what I can control - participation in the market. Economy is doing fine and uncertainty has been reduced for the moment.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by chassis

Focus on what I can control - participation in the market. Economy is doing fine and uncertainty has been reduced for the moment.

You guys think uncertainty has been reduced?

how?

there is still a ton of uncertainty irrelevant of politics and who is in charge...

But now with Trump winning... How do you know the tariffs won't be put in day one? How do you know how the tax cut extension will be handled? How do you know Jpowell isn't getting kicked out? Control what you can but there is an enormous ton of uncertainty at the moment... one of the ideas touted on the campaign trail was maximization of our exports which as stated by vance would be done thru the devaluation of the $...

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

You guys think uncertainty has been reduced?

how?

there is still a ton of uncertainty irrelevant of politics and who is in charge...

But now with Trump winning... How do you know the tariffs won't be put in day one? How do you know how the tax cut extension will be handled? How do you know Jpowell isn't getting kicked out? Control what you can but there is an enormous ton of uncertainty at the moment... one of the ideas touted on the campaign trail was maximization of our exports which as stated by vance would be done thru the devaluation of the $...

Two different sets of policies were in play; one has been eliminated. That reduced uncertainty.

The policies of greatest concern to the markets were the talk of an unrealized gains tax, a wealth tax, and increases in business income tax rates and realized capital gains tax rates. Each of those is a direct hit to stocks. I think the probability of them being enacted was priced in the market more than I had realized (masked by general market performance).

Tariffs may be put in place, but they likely will not be across the board. Targeted at countries/industries that could produce domestically, so there would be (a) substitutes available that would dampen the price effect in the US, and (b) benefits to the US companies that operate under those tariffs. That is a positive scenario for the market, but not the only scenario.

There is still uncertainty about the TCJA expirations at the end of 2025, other tax proposals, and economic growth prospects along with inflation and the impact of massive reductions in the federal government size (spending also declines and that is contractive for the economy in the short term). Again, these need to be enacted and there are significant barriers to that.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

Two different sets of policies were in play; one has been eliminated. That reduced uncertainty.

The policies of greatest concern to the markets were the talk of an unrealized gains tax, a wealth tax, and increases in business income tax rates and realized capital gains tax rates. Each of those is a direct hit to stocks. I think the probability of them being enacted was priced in the market more than I had realized (masked by general market performance).

Tariffs may be put in place, but they likely will not be across the board. Targeted at countries/industries that could produce domestically, so there would be (a) substitutes available that would dampen the price effect in the US, and (b) benefits to the US companies that operate under those tariffs. That is a positive scenario for the market, but not the only scenario.

There is still uncertainty about the TCJA expirations at the end of 2025, other tax proposals, and economic growth prospects along with inflation and the impact of massive reductions in the federal government size (spending also declines and that is contractive for the economy in the short term). Again, these need to be enacted and there are significant barriers to that.

I think we both voted for the same person so this isn't a political discussion but rather an economic one... if you put 2 and 2 together, the plan forward is actually quite simple-

1. Extend TCJA w probably some form of corp tax cuts
2. Immediate pressure to lower rates with high chance of a new fed chair
3. Potential tariffs which would bring back inflation in combo w the rate reduction
4. Money printing and MBS purchases right back on the table.
5. Some spending will be cut but not remotely enough to offset the tax credits and the deficit will continue to sky rocket.

All of this will have very positive effects on the stock market / wall street for obvious reasons... I think likely this will have the opposite effect on everyday working folks and main street. If unemployment continues to falter it will only get worse.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I think we both voted for the same person so this isn't a political discussion but rather an economic one... if you put 2 and 2 together, the plan forward is actually quite simple-

1. Extend TCJA w probably some form of corp tax cuts
2. Immediate pressure to lower rates with high chance of a new fed chair
3. Potential tariffs which would bring back inflation in combo w the rate reduction
4. Money printing and MBS purchases right back on the table.
5. Some spending will be cut but not remotely enough to offset the tax credits and the deficit will continue to sky rocket.

All of this will have very positive effects on the stock market / wall street for obvious reasons... I think likely this will have the opposite effect on everyday working folks and main street. If unemployment continues to falter it will only get worse.

Are you not allowed to say you voted for Trump on here? Is that illegal?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Are you not allowed to say you voted for Trump on here? Is that illegal?

illegal on all social media lol

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Are you not allowed to say you voted for ##### on here? Is that illegal?

Political/religious discussion of any type is prohibited on BP ever since the Politics & Religion section was shut down a few years ago. There is a pretty prominent sticky note on the top of the OT section explaining this, and I suggest that you read it. The last thing that we want is for the entire OT section to get shut down as well!

I personally wouldn't post anything other than "with the upcoming change of administration" in this thread, because banned camp is a cold and lonely place if your post catches the eye of one of the 23 listed (and who knows how many unlisted) OT section moderators.....

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I think we both voted for the same person so this isn't a political discussion but rather an economic one... if you put 2 and 2 together, the plan forward is actually quite simple-

1. Extend TCJA w probably some form of corp tax cuts
2. Immediate pressure to lower rates with high chance of a new fed chair
3. Potential tariffs which would bring back inflation in combo w the rate reduction
4. Money printing and MBS purchases right back on the table.
5. Some spending will be cut but not remotely enough to offset the tax credits and the deficit will continue to sky rocket.

All of this will have very positive effects on the stock market / wall street for obvious reasons... I think likely this will have the opposite effect on everyday working folks and main street. If unemployment continues to falter it will only get worse.

This is not about who I voted for, if I even voted. It is about the impacts of the policy proposals specifically on the stock markets and generally on the economy. I try to be factual and not get emotional about elections or investing, as I think it clouds judgement leading to investing mistakes.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

Political/religious discussion of any type is prohibited on BP ever since the Politics & Religion section was shut down a few years ago. There is a pretty prominent sticky note on the top of the OT section explaining this, and I suggest that you read it. The last thing that we want is for the entire OT section to get shut down as well!

I personally wouldn't post anything other than "with the upcoming change of administration" in this thread, because banned camp is a cold and lonely place if your post catches the eye of one of the 23 listed (and who knows how many unlisted) OT section moderators.....

I noticed my thread asking who everyone voted for was closed.

I'm not sure why we can't talk about the biggest story in 4 years. If you don't want to participate in politics (not you, in general) don't click the thread.

If I get banned - they can ban me.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by chassis

Focus on what I can control - participation in the market. Economy is doing fine and uncertainty has been reduced for the moment.

I thought you were asking what I would do about rates. It appears you mean what am I doing with my investments?

I am actually taking certain calculated steps to de-risk. Partly due to where we are in the market cycle, partly opportunistic, partly due to my personal situation. Yesterday I took the opportunity to sell some stocks that I had been eyeing for sale already. In the previous weeks I sold some others.

I see no big short term impact from the election. But, if widespread tariffs are imposed, then companies without pricing power are going to start guiding lower. I think that could begin to happen around 1st quarter 2025 earnings season. Potentially continuing throughout the year.

[XutvJet]

All that's really going to happen with the new administration is some minor tweaking of the dials, largely to the benefit of corporations and the wealthy and some non-significant tariffs and talk of big tariffs that won't happen. Most of what was said was just a lot of talk to appease the base, who are largely comprised of lower middle class and lower and will reap no benefits. Barring another COVID and/or market bubble, what's going to happen is the ultra wealthy will certainly get much more wealthy over the next 4 years. The rest of us? Not so much. We'll be pretty stagnant or worse at the end of 4 years. History repeats itself, just in slightly different but similar forms.

[tom2021]

In the short term, 1 - 2 years, the market will rise.
In the middle term, 3 - 5 years, the market will come down.
Long term, I really don't know.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by tom2021

In the short term, 1 - 2 years, the market will rise.
In the middle term, 3 - 5 years, the market will come down.
Long term, I really don't know.

So is life with a Republican led administration and government. I'm not trying to be political with that statement either. It's just the facts.

The first Trump administration and the Biden administration have very little responsibility for how the market has behaved, inflation, etc. over the last 5 years. That is all COVID and the remnants of it and the Fed trying to figure out how to keep things afloat during a very unprecedented and initially scary situation and perhaps the Fed over-reacting and/or not tweaking the dials after a couple of years. Lessons were learned and I prefer over-reaction vs being too conservative in the situation like that.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by tom2021

In the short term, 1 - 2 years, the market will rise.
In the middle term, 3 - 5 years, the market will come down.
Long term, I really don't know.

You don't know anything like everyone else

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

All that's really going to happen with the new administration is some minor tweaking of the dials, largely to the benefit of corporations and the wealthy and some non-significant tariffs and talk of big tariffs that won't happen. Most of what was said was just a lot of talk to appease the base, who are largely comprised of lower middle class and lower and will reap no benefits. Barring another COVID and/or market bubble, what's going to happen is the ultra wealthy will certainly get much more wealthy over the next 4 years. The rest of us? Not so much. We'll be pretty stagnant or worse at the end of 4 years. History repeats itself, just in slightly different but similar forms.

likely i agree... i laid out the plan on the prior page on what exactly will happen... benefit to the regular class likely none... wealthy and asset holders very high... granted the alternative would have been more nonsense like the inflation reducation act which has nothing to do w inflation, raised taxes on everyone and an increased deficit as well

[DrVenture]

Interesting chart on national debt. Note that some presidents had 4-yr terms and others had 8-year terms:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-president-us/

CRFB estimates based on each candidates proposed spending plans:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...ys-2024-10-07/

[DrVenture]

I would also suggest that when someone refers to themselves as a "tariff man", you might want to take that seriously.

The first round of tariffs played havoc on the agriculture sector and led to record farm subsidies, funded by taxpayers. That was only one industry.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta...uclear-forces/

"After a series of tariff increases on Chinese imports, the government of China retaliated against U.S. exporters, as predicted by trade analysts outside of the administration. As a result, U.S. exports, particularly of agricultural goods, dropped significantly. “Losing the world’s most populous country as an export market has been a major blow to the [U.S.] agriculture industry,” reported the New York Times in August 2019. “Total American agricultural exports to China were $24 billion in 2014 and fell to $9.1 billion last year, according to the American Farm Bureau.” In 2018, U.S. farmers’ soybean exports to China declined by 75%, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission."

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I noticed my thread asking who everyone voted for was closed.

I'm not sure why we can't talk about the biggest story in 4 years. If you don't want to participate in politics (not you, in general) don't click the thread.

If I get banned - they can ban me.

BP is a private forum, and the owners/moderators make the rules that everyone must adhere to.

If you were around here in the days before the Politics & Religion section was deleted forever, you would know how quickly civil discussions break down and why the decision was made.

I'd suggest following the rules...including the rule not to question why the P&R section was removed. If you already had a thread closed, I'm sure that all of the moderators have a screen with your points towards a future visit to banned camp (which is a cold, lonely place from what others have said).....