[fatpanda]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Hi there Whats your opinion on the EUR and USD that Sam and I are currently talking about?

Hi, 1.19-1.20 will b strong support as its a multi year support/resistance line... thk there has to be some kind of grexit, fixit etc to push below that, as ECB rate already nearing zero...

[Vanity]

So yesterday I sold UVXY for a profit at 9.05, then seconds after it tumbled to 8.25 where I picked it up at 8.26. Bam, this morning the ETF opens up to $9.00. Nice profit was taken in the morning. Cameback to it at the end of the trading session and what did UVXY do? Jumped from 8.03 to as high as 8.49 in 3 minutes into the close! Shockingly quick upside. Holding it now for tomorrow and we shall see how next week does. Sure feels like something big is around the corner, really does.

DJIA and SPX both broke down trend support lines, USD is now above 83.54 and made a new high, EURO is heavily depressed, and the bond markets my goodness! Looks like Fourth of July fireworks will be coming around again to celebrate. How are you guys doing? Sam and Rowr and everyone else?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

So yesterday I sold UVXY for a profit at 9.05, then seconds after it tumbled to 8.25 where I picked it up at 8.26. Bam, this morning the ETF opens up to $9.00. Nice profit was taken in the morning. Cameback to it at the end of the trading session and what did UVXY do? Jumped from 8.03 to as high as 8.49 in 3 minutes into the close! Shockingly quick upside. Holding it now for tomorrow and we shall see how next week does. Sure feels like something big is around the corner, really does.

DJIA and SPX both broke down trend support lines, USD is now above 83.54 and made a new high, EURO is heavily depressed, and the bond markets my goodness! Looks like Fourth of July fireworks will be coming around again to celebrate. How are you guys doing? Sam and Rowr and everyone else?

Glad to see you made some profits and very well made back the majority of my money

Also, BAC closed beneath it's 20,50, ad 200 MA's on it's 15min chart which is a good sign for how tomorrow should go! Hopefully JPM doesn't do to well and we see the financials continue to drop as they did today.

Also, USD index reached 83.83 today before pulling back! Not to shabby! And agreed the Euro is heavily depressed makes me curious to know how much more we can fall without something large (exit) occurring.

MACD as well as stochastic still headed downward for the overall markets. So, we should continue to fall from here!

[fatpanda]

Hi guys, quick question on homebuilders n property: is it the right time to buy property now or better to just trade XHB? Thanks!

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by fatpanda

Hi guys, quick question on homebuilders n property: is it the right time to buy property now or better to just trade XHB? Thanks!

Home data is good, there is tangible recovery, however the market is soon to be flooded with bulks of foreclosed homes. You will have to do more research to figure out the pricing risks in that. It will most definitely decrease housing sales (as there is more supply but same demand), but that will need to be sustained for a few months (6-12 months, potentially) for prices to drop more. It also depends on the property and location.


Now, today's market rally is a hot potatoe! Ouch! I do, however, believe the rally run up to the 1375-1400 region is completed already with the SPX logging 1374 last Thursday. Instead of a continued rally, this most likely appears to be 1) a fake out rally, or 2) a dead cat bounce.

Next week should see more downside.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Home data is good, there is tangible recovery, however the market is soon to be flooded with bulks of foreclosed homes. You will have to do more research to figure out the pricing risks in that. It will most definitely decrease housing sales (as there is more supply but same demand), but that will need to be sustained for a few months (6-12 months, potentially) for prices to drop more. It also depends on the property and location.


Now, today's market rally is a hot potatoe! Ouch! I do, however, believe the rally run up to the 1375-1400 region is completed already with the SPX logging 1374 last Thursday. Instead of a continued rally, this most likely appears to be 1) a fake out rally, or 2) a dead cat bounce.

Next week should see more downside.

Let's hope so I got a nice hit today, it was a very low volume rally which tells me there was a lot of short covering. Are you still holding that UVXY?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Let's hope so I got a nice hit today, it was a very low volume rally which tells me there was a lot of short covering. Are you still holding that UVXY?

Did you recoupe with your BAC options after today? Yeah, I took a hit on UVXY so it took out my gains from Thursday.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Did you recoupe with your BAC options after today? Yeah, I took a hit on UVXY so it took out my gains from Thursday.

They were puts, so it took out my months profit today.. cant win them all, not to worried though I know I can make it all back!

[r0wr]

Sorry I've been so quiet guys. Been studying for the CFA all day and everyday. I'm out of everything right now.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Sorry I've been so quiet guys. Been studying for the CFA all day and everyday. I'm out of everything right now.

Keep it up!


And Sam, that's the spirit!

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Sorry I've been so quiet guys. Been studying for the CFA all day and everyday. I'm out of everything right now.

Wish you the best of luck!

[stylinexpat]

Will be interesting to see what next week brings us. I reckon BAC should be good coming into earnings.

[Hisam135i]

I think we are going to be in for a nasty week, If you take a look at the hourly chart for DJI and SPX you will find that MACD is forming a down trend (still). Also, stochastic are about to cross which could bring a strong momentum shift in the market. RSI is also approaching but not reaching overbought levels. Not only that but as you can see below we are approaching 1358 which is a resistance level. On friday, we actually touched 1358 than retracted a bit closing at 1357.



What is making things uncertain for me is EUR/USD...

As you can see on the chart below, stochastic is in oversold levels. We are also sitting right above the 20MA on the hourly chart which is acting as support. On the 5-min chart we are currently sitting EXACTLY on the 50MA (should be interesting to see how things play out overnight). MACD is pointing lower, so I am assuming we should see the Euro Vs. the USD sitting in oversold levels for quite a bit.



Not sure if any of you are subscribed to Barrons, but in this weeks issue on page 53 you can see the CBOE Put/Call Ratio. The ratio is approaching the 30:100 level which is a bearish signal. Also, the put/call ratio for the SPX 100 is approaching 70:100 which is very close to the bearish 75:100.

What are you guys looking at in this murky market?

EDIT** EUR/USD just broke the 50MA I mentioned earlier on the 5 min chart and fell quite quickly, meaning tomorrow should be a DOWN day.

[stylinexpat]

I agree. I smell poop today. Monday could be ugly.

[Hisam135i]

right after my post EUR/USD hit two year lows than bounced back

[Vanity]

Not sure what is going to happen with the indices, but tomorrow is VIX rollovers for Futures so I'm in XIV to capture that free premium. We are at 17ish region in VIX, so going long UVXY ATM before a rollover is a bit suicidal.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Not sure what is going to happen with the indices, but tomorrow is VIX rollovers for Futures so I'm in XIV to capture that free premium. We are at 17ish region in VIX, so going long UVXY ATM before a rollover is a bit suicidal.

I got rid of my puts today, currently not trading anything but looking.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

I got rid of my puts today, currently not trading anything but looking.

Sounds good Sam

[Hisam135i]

Btw what trading platform are you guys using? Currently, I'm running etrade but thinking of making a switch to tradestation

[rallysport]

Any of you guys have an opinion on where oil is going? I feel $90 is resistance, If it breaks past it might run back up to $100, but I don't see why it would unless something worse happens in Syria or Iran

[ejheverest]

ThinkorSwim platform

[Hisam135i]

USD index fell through it's support at 83 what do you guys think small rally coming in the next two days?