[sokdo]

Originally Posted by Kev

and your point being?

Natural selection =/= no meds / vaccine Where did you learn all your science from?

Where did YOU learn your science from lol. You can't relate natural selection with medicine and vaccines because those aren't "natural" lol. Natural selection means that those who do not have a mutation in their gene that's effective against a particular environment will die off and those that do have that certain gene will live on to breed. So let's say there was no such things as medicine in a population of 100. The pop. contracts a disease, kills off say 95 out of those 100. 5 are left living because they have a certain genetic mutation that allows them immunity. Now those 5 breed and make babies who also carry that gene and now 100% of the population is immune to that particular disease. That is how natural selection works. Of course, the disease will evolve too now that the humans are immune. That's also reason why AIDS is so hard to cure..

[Kev]

Originally Posted by sokdo

Where did YOU learn your science from lol. You can't relate natural selection with medicine and vaccines because those aren't "natural" lol. Natural selection means that those who do not have a mutation in their gene that's effective against a particular environment will die off and those that do have that certain gene will live on to breed. So let's say there was no such things as medicine in a population of 100. The pop. contracts a disease, kills off say 95 out of those 100. 5 are left living because they have a certain genetic mutation that allows them immunity. Now those 5 breed and make babies who also carry that gene and now 100% of the population is immune to that particular disease. That is how natural selection works. Of course, the disease will evolve too now that the humans are immune. That's also reason why AIDS is so hard to cure..

Wow, you got it mixed up......

First of all, "On the origin of species" was published 1859. Mendel's work on classical genetics did not get published until 1866. It was lost for another 32 years and would not be "re-discovered" in 1900. The chromosomal theory of inheritance will not be published for another 10 years or so. Therefore, when Darwin wrote his theory of natural selection, there was ZERO understanding of genetics, let alone understanding gene as the unit of inheritance and the concept of mutation as a cause of genetic variation. He was only able to infer sexual selection by using examples seen in animal / plant breeding.

The basic principle of the theory of Natural Selection as a theory for Evolution is: "the survival of the fittest", whoever survive the longest to pass on their gene pool to the next, i.e. to have sex and reproduce, wins. However, at the time of the publication of "On the origin of species", Sir Darwin did not understand that genotype begets phenotype, so he can only infer that some sort of inheritance pattern exist (i.e. the gene pool that we know of).

People who got the vaccine will be immune to a potential deadly disease, which confers a survival advantage to those who did not, increasing their chance of passing on their genes to the next generation. That's natural selection at work.

[fdsasdasdf]

1. H1N1 = not a major problem and it won't kill me. It's the "media virus." If it ever became a serious problem, then I'd get it.

2. As a stats major, I know this stuff isn't tested well enough. Long-term effects are entirely unknown, but they can be predicted to a limited degree. I'd rather see the effects than predict them; the chaotic pendulum is all I need to think about before I turn myself away from this shot. Small changes in initial values make big, big differences in the future.

3. It's a positive externality. You are going to benefit from all of the other guinea pigs who are getting the H1N1 flu shot. The probability of you getting it decreases because other people around you have the flu shot.

This is textbook a Binomial setting It can be modeled entirely by a binomial distribution, if you do so desire. The exact probability of you getting it in your general vicinity can easily be found. H1N1~N(((probability of having the flu)*(sample size)), (sqrt(np(1-p))). Add 0.5 for probabilities to the left, subtract 0.5 for probabilities to the right for continuity correction. Boom: there's your chance of getting it. It's probably pretty darn small.

[Kev]

Originally Posted by Zell

1. H1N1 = not a major problem and it won't kill me. It's the "media virus." If it ever became a serious problem, then I'd get it.

2. As a stats major, I know this stuff isn't tested well enough. Long-term effects are entirely unknown, but they can be predicted to a limited degree. I'd rather see the effects than predict them; the chaotic pendulum is all I need to think about before I turn myself away from this shot. Small changes in initial values make big, big differences in the future.

3. It's a positive externality. You are going to benefit from all of the other guinea pigs who are getting the H1N1 flu shot. The probability of you getting it decreases because other people around you have the flu shot.

This is textbook a Binomial setting It can be modeled entirely by a binomial distribution, if you do so desire. The exact probability of you getting it in your general vicinity can easily be found. H1N1~N(((probability of having the flu)*(sample size)), (sqrt(np(1-p))). Add 0.5 for probabilities to the left, subtract 0.5 for probabilities to the right for continuity correction. Boom: there's your chance of getting it. It's probably pretty darn small.

1. WRONG - we are seeing primary H1N1 ARDS and we used up all the proning bed in the Pacific Northwest, so think again.

2. Mr. Statistics Major, how do you think the long term effects are going to be different, knowing that it is made the exact same way as the seasonal flu vaccine with similar antigens?

3. Not entirely correct, herd immunity works in theory, but statistics only apply to a group of people. However, it only have to strike you once...

I'm amazed by the responses that I'm seeing on Bimmerpost with regards to the H1N1 Pandemic. I guess if you are not seeing it first hand, you won't have the fear implanted in you.

[Kev]

Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony

You dont really think that the swine flu is a pandemic do you? Thousands of people die each year from the flu, just like the thousands of animals have died that you eat. Cancer/flu eats you, you eat other things, big deal. Thats the way our planet works.

Im not gonna inject myself with some laboratory chemicals because the tv says so. Getting a vaccine is a guaranteed way of putting artificial chemicals into my body. However there is no guarantee that I will get the swine flu. My brother and his roommate got swine flu and are fine just like many people get swine flu and live to tell about it. I cant believe how hysterical people get about the flu, I wonder what cows and pigs think about the human virus!

Thats just my opinion that id rather take my chance of not getting the flu, which I never have, compared to injecting myself with some drug company vaccine that many doctors on tv are saying not to. To each his own.

Seeing it in the front line and caring for patients that have complications from H1N1 makes me think otherwise. Currently, 20% of patients at my hospital tested positive for H1N1. As a responsible physician in training, after reviewing all the literature and seeing the clinical big picture, I would highly recommend the people whom I care about to get vaccinated. You are more than welcomed to take your own risk.

[aus]

Originally Posted by Zell

1. H1N1 = not a major problem and it won't kill me. It's the "media virus." If it ever became a serious problem, then I'd get it.

If you're pretty thin, you should be OK, but anyone who's pushng 3 bills should get the shot. I just had a 41 year old guy who has a 6 year old and a 3 year old die on me after 3 weeks on the vent. He had basically no improvement after the first week and was too sick to get a trach- which you usually do after 10-14 days on the vent.
I've already had a 30 year old who was way over 3 bills die and a 40 year old pregnant lady die... with the baby.

Originally Posted by Kev

1. WRONG - we are seeing primary H1N1 ARDS and we used up all the proning bed in the Pacific Northwest, so think again.

I'm amazed by the responses that I'm seeing on Bimmerpost with regards to the H1N1 Pandemic. I guess if you are not seeing it first hand, you won't have the fear implanted in you.

Kev, get use to these responses. It's understandable since the age group the CDC is targeting, are the young and healthy. Who feel like they're invincible. There are doc's out there who think it's "just the flu." It's not just the flu if you're heavy or pregnant. Once you get the ARDS and you're not off the vent in 1-2 weeks, you're pretty much dead.

Also remember, the rapid Influenz nasal swab test is only about 30% sensitive. All the ones who died on me were negative for the nasal swab. They were diagnosed by using a camera and doing a lung washing.

[chango335]

I got my H1N1 shot a few weeks ago...and right away, I started walking backwards!!!!!!




Obviously, I'm joking....anyone believing that youtube vid about that girl having all those brain issues due to the flu shot should talk to their local doctor/hospital and get properly informed on the H1N1 shot and not be persuaded by non medical influences.

I do feel sorry for that girl that contracted dystonia and I hope she does get better, however there is absolutely no results that show dystonia was caused by the flu shot.

I have also been experiencing quite a number of people that I work with who are not getting the H1N1 shot and say it's just the media blowing it out of proportion and that they won't take the shot because they've never gotten the flu shot- never gotten sick for that matter. I warned them that it is no joke- one of my close family friends is a paediatrician and he contracted H1N1 and had temporary paralysis because of it. But they still didn't listen.....now I go back to the office and all those people that refused to get the shot are all sick.

Society needs to be better informed on the risks and benefits of the H1N1 shots. Many doctors will say that the benefits of getting the H1N1 shot are much higher than the risk of negative results from the shot.

[Kev]

Originally Posted by aus

Kev, get use to these responses. It's understandable since the age group the CDC is targeting, are the young and healthy. Who feel like they're invincible. There are doc's out there who think it's "just the flu." It's not just the flu if you're heavy or pregnant. Once you get the ARDS and you're not off the vent in 1-2 weeks, you're pretty much dead.

Also remember, the rapid Influenz nasal swab test is only about 30% sensitive. All the ones who died on me were negative for the nasal swab. They were diagnosed by using a camera and doing a lung washing.

Haha, I was going to say the invincible line, but decided to cut it out as to not sound arrogant.

Yeah, we are seeing quite few cases of H1N1 ARDS in our MICU. That's why we've used up all the proning bed and NO here in the PNW. I saw one patient that was unproned and eventually came off of the vent and extubated from his H1N1, but he ended up bagging his kidneys when he was septic, so now he's on dialysis.

People who don't see it first hand won't feel the pain of having it. This is NO typical seasonal influenza.

[chango335]

Originally Posted by Kev

People who don't see it first hand won't feel the pain of having it. This is NO typical seasonal influenza.

+1

[Kev]

Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony

Yeah but you guys are in the hospital. You see every disease in there. That doesnt stop you from driving your car, just because you see traffic accidents. You witness the affects of h1n1 and have your opinion. I witness my brother getting it and being fine, his roommate getting it and being fine, and me never haven gotten the flu, so thats my experience.

The problem is the vaccine. If they made something that had zero side effects and doctors werent on tv saying to stay away, and people didnt die and get neurological disorders like they did with the swine flu "epidemic" vaccine in the 70s, then Id get it. The problem is the vaccine is dangerous just like the flu.

Some will get sick and die, just like all the starving and murdered people all around the world die everyday. Statistically speaking for me, im safer without the vaccine. Im not trying to argue or anything, I just haven't seen any reason to get the vaccine. If im wrong, get h1n1, and die, then I guess im dumb. Or I might not get h1n1 and not inject myself with possible debilitation chemicals and be fine.

That's exactly what I said, you are more than welcomed to take your chances. On the other hand, my recommendation still stands that I will recommend all the people that I care about to get vaccinated.

Just to set the record straight, there is NO causal link that was ever established with the flu shot and GBS, even back in the 70s when the massive plan for vaccination rolled out.

[Kev]

Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony

And I respect your recommendation as a future doc and all. My concerns are about the doctors on tv telling me NOT to get it. I dont want the h1n1 virus!! If there was a pill to take, so I wouldnt get it then great. But when the vaccine is causing debates on tv between doctors, and many people are speaking out against it, I get concerned. I just want to be healthy, I dont care whether its because of a vaccine or not.

With the arguments on both sides, how is anybody supposed to know what to do? You just have to pick a side and hope you made the right call.

Just for the records, I AM a doctor, not a future doctor... I did manage to finish medical school somehow. LOL~

As far as the TV personalities debating for / against the vaccine, it's all silly propaganda. I'd just take it as a grain of salt.

[Kev]

Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony

lol, I wasnt debating whether your a doctor or not! There is no doubt that the vaccine contains stuff I actively try and keep out of my body. But by injecting that junk into you, you may prevent something worse from entering you. I choose to lock myself up in the house infront of my gaming machine and play games til this swine flu thing pass over!!

Nobody in the house and nobody in my 335 and ill be fine with games and driving!

I'm not debating. I'm merely stating the fact and setting the records straight. I'm not even trying to convince you to get vaccinated. As I said before, you are more than welcomed to take your chances. It's a free country, do whatever the hell you want with your own body. Go wild

[aus]

Originally Posted by Kev

Haha, I was going to say the invincible line, but decided to cut it out as to not sound arrogant.

Yeah, we are seeing quite few cases of H1N1 ARDS in our MICU. That's why we've used up all the proning bed and NO here in the PNW. I saw one patient that was unproned and eventually came off of the vent and extubated from his H1N1, but he ended up bagging his kidneys when he was septic, so now he's on dialysis.

People who don't see it first hand won't feel the pain of having it. This is NO typical seasonal influenza.

How long did it take for that patient to get better? It's encouraging to see some do get better. All mine have died when that get multiorgan failure with bad ARDS.

Are most of your bad cased wtih big people? That's been my experience and all my buddies exerpience. H1N1 likes the fatties and pregnant.

Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony

Yeah but you guys are in the hospital. You see every disease in there. That doesnt stop you from driving your car, just because you see traffic accidents. You witness the affects of h1n1 and have your opinion. I witness my brother getting it and being fine, his roommate getting it and being fine, and me never haven gotten the flu, so thats my experience.

The problem is the vaccine. If they made something that had zero side effects and doctors werent on tv saying to stay away, and people didnt die and get neurological disorders like they did with the swine flu "epidemic" vaccine in the 70s, then Id get it. The problem is the vaccine is dangerous just like the flu.

Some will get sick and die, just like all the starving and murdered people all around the world die everyday. Statistically speaking for me, im safer without the vaccine. Im not trying to argue or anything, I just haven't seen any reason to get the vaccine. If im wrong, get h1n1, and die, then I guess im dumb. Or I might not get h1n1 and not inject myself with possible debilitation chemicals and be fine.

I know what you're saying about getting stuff injected into you, but there are NO MEDS with no adverse drug reactions. They do have a Thimerisol free injection that we've been using in Cali on kids for years. And guess what? NO change in Autism rates since they started using it.

Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony

And I respect your recommendation as a future doc and all. My concerns are about the doctors on tv telling me NOT to get it. I dont want the h1n1 virus!! If there was a pill to take, so I wouldnt get it then great. But when the vaccine is causing debates on tv between doctors, and many people are speaking out against it, I get concerned. I just want to be healthy, I dont care whether its because of a vaccine or not.

With the arguments on both sides, how is anybody supposed to know what to do? You just have to pick a side and hope you made the right call.

Thos docs are dumb as shit if they're going against the CDC recommendations on this one. Especially if you're overweight or pregnant.

[Negotiator]

There is no reason not to get vaccinated. Although I probably would avoid nasal if given the choice.

[fdsasdasdf]

Originally Posted by Kev

1. WRONG - we are seeing primary H1N1 ARDS and we used up all the proning bed in the Pacific Northwest, so think again.

2. Mr. Statistics Major, how do you think the long term effects are going to be different, knowing that it is made the exact same way as the seasonal flu vaccine with similar antigens?

3. Not entirely correct, herd immunity works in theory, but statistics only apply to a group of people. However, it only have to strike you once...

I'm amazed by the responses that I'm seeing on Bimmerpost with regards to the H1N1 Pandemic. I guess if you are not seeing it first hand, you won't have the fear implanted in you.

Mr. Doctor, why is it that 100% of all H1N1 cases at NCSU have resulted in not dying? There is no reason for me to get the vaccine in my area, and I'm not going to any other area any time soon. I'm stuck here.

Originally Posted by Kev

statistics only apply to a group of people.

Statistics inference a parameter, which, in this case, is the general population which is susceptible to H1N1 (and, from what I see, it applies to everyone). If you want to sit there and call the entire susceptible population a "group of people," then so be it, but it sounds like a SRS.

But hey, you've got your own observations and I've got mine. You see lots of cases in your environment that are serious, I see zero.

[Kev]

Originally Posted by Zell

Mr. Doctor, why is it that 100% of all H1N1 cases at NCSU have resulted in not dying? There is no reason for me to get the vaccine in my area, and I'm not going to any other area any time soon. I'm stuck here.



Statistics inference a parameter, which, in this case, is the general population which is susceptible to H1N1 (and, from what I see, it applies to everyone). If you want to sit there and call the entire susceptible population a "group of people," then so be it, but it sounds like a SRS.

But hey, you've got your own observations and I've got mine. You see lots of cases in your environment that are serious, I see zero.

As I said, you are more than welcomed to take your chances. I'm gonna go by what the CDC recommends, as well as reviewing the potential consequences, and balance that with the potential side effects. In fact, I was the first group to get the LAIV at work. The vaccine is a risk that I am willing to take and I'll recommend my loved ones to take. If you don't want it, it's fine.

The NNT might be large in this case, but with low cost and low side effect profile, it's really not that big of a deal to get vaccinated in this case and have the peace of mind. I guess there are always people that are willing to take the gamble.

[enfield]

With all due respect to all the Physicians out there I would like to state for the record that everybody is eventually going to die. There is no reason to scare people. They will die. They could die due to a bus, cancer, heart disease, H1N1, Malaria, TB, HIV/AIDS, lightning, plane, sudden cardiac death, slipping on a banana peel etc. They could die in the next second or live another 100 years. There is only one thing we are sure of in life & that is death.

Do your best, try to be a good person, help people (including yourself), and don't tell people that the world is coming to an end because a 100 mile asteroid is about to hit Earth. They are going to die anyway - so what's the use of trying to scare them!

[Kev]

Originally Posted by enfield

With all due respect to all the Physicians out there I would like to state for the record that everybody is eventually going to die. There is no reason to scare people. They will die. They could die due to a bus, cancer, heart disease, H1N1, Malaria, TB, HIV/AIDS, lightning, plane, sudden cardiac death, slipping on a banana peel etc. They could die in the next second or live another 100 years. There is only one thing we are sure of in life & that is death.

Do your best, try to be a good person, help people (including yourself), and don't tell people that the world is coming to an end because a 100 mile asteroid is about to hit Earth. They are going to die anyway - so what's the use of trying to scare them!

Thanks for the good laugh.

[ybbiz34]

Originally Posted by Kev

1

I'm amazed by the responses that I'm seeing on Bimmerpost with regards to the H1N1 Pandemic. I guess if you are not seeing it first hand, you won't have the fear implanted in you.

Same here. Sadly, nothing really surprises me anymore.

I got both the H1N1 vaccine and the seasonal flu vaccine.

Better to be safe than sorry.

[ybbiz34]

Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony

My grandmother just called and told me that my uncle has h1n1. He did not get the vaccine, got h1n1, recovered and is fine. So my brother, his roommate, and my uncle, all got h1n1, all recovered and are fine.

So I stand by my decision to not vaccine. 3 healthy relatives recovered fine, so I assume that I would as well. I assume that your health before you get the flu is a factor?

Actually, the H1N1 virus has proven to be most deadly to those who are young and have very strong immune systems. I'm serious. Look it up.

[Spoolin335]

i didnt get mine yet...

i wanted to see if "I am Legend" was going to be a true story before i got my shot.

[magmd]

hahahahah....man, it amazes me at the ignorance in here. But I guess you would expect that from a forum of this nature.

I find it hilarious that when people are sick, they get pissed off that doctors do not have cures to reverse chronic damage leading to their terminal ailments, yet they were the types to refuse preventive measures and undergo various screenings while they were healthy.

I wonder how many of you guys would be ok with your doctor telling you "hey, don't worry about it. We all have to die sometime." We should just have them send you home without any interventions, or those damn man made chemicals they tell you to go pick up at the pharmacy, the next time you are sick or injured.