[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by David70

I thought it was generally supposed to be a down year in an election year also but based just on the "election year", isn't this saying the opposite?

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6185252&page=1

Or this -
http://moneyover55.about.com/od/howt...tionmarket.htm

1964-1980 were the best years of gains.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by David70

I thought it was generally supposed to be a down year in an election year also but based just on the "election year", isn't this saying the opposite?

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6185252&page=1



Or this -
http://moneyover55.about.com/od/howt...tionmarket.htm

I can understand the years when they are running for 2nd term after 1990s, but I was very surprised 1992 was up year.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by mact3333

You wouldn't be the first to call me out on this thread.......I don't profess to know/time anything, I base my ecisions off of educated guesses...nobody knows anything with 100% certainty am I right?...I don't even know if I will make it home alive tonight....

I always used to preface everything I say with "if you were smart you wouldn't listen to a word I am saying"....you should do your own dd and never blindly follow anyone as nobody will cover your losses but yourself.

The reason why I won't reveal my methods is because it has taken a long time to cultivate my methods, why would I reveal them to a free OT message board?...some people, in the past, might have paid me for my services hehe.

One thing I will never do is come on here saying buy this company or that as earnings will rise blah blah...because what has really changed with respect to earnings and revenues over past month on many of the stocks currently tanking?..nothing...stocks go up when people buy and go down when people see, nothing more, nothing less.

When technical damage done to general mkt's, all stocks will tank, you can be sure of this.

BTW, we are currently at Defcon 3 right now...another few days pf heavy selling and we will progress to Defcon 4 and 5....

If we have entered a true long term bear, its still early in the game so need to panic ...the next bear will last 1-2 years.

If you don't profess to know anything, at least with 100% certainty, then how do you know the next bear market will last 1-2 years?

Also, your previous post seems to indicate that you are very much trying to time the market (for example cashing out a 529 account).

Originally Posted by mact3333

As posted on 12/2/15

[I]1. Swapped out my kids 529 accounts into cash today, are we at THE top right now, probably not, but trying to catch the last 10% of the rally is for suckers...imho....when it goes, it will go fast and before most realize what is happening...while many will expect a selloff, they will expect usual 10-20% correction but it will go beyond that...when mom/pop panic, thats when you must commit for the long term again to maximize your returns.

Why would you cash out a 529 account? Unless your kid is about to go into college within the next 2-4 years, I'd say that's premature. If you have a longterm horizon, let the account stay in place; if you ride it out over the long term you should be fine. Also, can't you write off any potential losses through tax loss-harvesting?

Originally Posted by mact3333

2. If you trade oil base on inventory, you will lose...oil is traded in USD and money supply reigns supreme here...oil has been hammered not due to inventories, but because everyone knows interest rates are going to go up leading to a contraction of the money supply, hence the dollar has been strong ...US dollar goes up, commodities must come down.

Seems like you're stating the obvious at this point....it has been known for a while that oil prices are decreasing. Also, that has more to do with oversupply than anything else.

Originally Posted by mact3333

3. I told you guys 3 years ago we were going to make new all time highs and we were going to rally for a long time...not sure many believed me at the time...now we are getting really close to that top...too early to short now but no need to be aggressively long either....prudent to be cautious now....Bernanke and Yellen have always made it clear what to do...most things can be explained by the expansion/contraction of the money supply and how humans respond to this.

All JMHO of course.

I really don't know what to make of this paragraph. The markets may have seen some very big expansions since 2009, but a lot of analysts have been arguing for some time that the valuation of some of these assets has been abnormal; they're not matching up with the actual corporate earnings and spending that we have been seeing over the last 6-7 years. What's more is that a lot of people have argued that the Fed's manipulation of the interest rates (and QE bond-buying program) has not only added a hefty sum to our national debt but also has created a false sense of confidence in the investment world. And when the market correction finally does happen, there is a lot skepticism over what the Fed will be able to do, as they already have the rates extremely low and don't have many fiscal tools left in their arsenal.

[qba335i]

Dako43,

He is trying to make an educated bet that the market will depreciate over the next 2 years, hence the movement to cash (the only liquid/secure asset class - unless you believe in physical gold).

The whole point of going to cash is to maintain the current value and potentially re-purchase at a lower entry point. You can't buy depreciated assets if you don't have cash

[ASBSECU E93]

^agree....buy low sell high...

Those that are liquid hold an advantageous position to prosper on the fears of others and the fickle nature of the markets.

True future wealth can be made in the biggest Bear markets...

[MrPrena]

..or get into bear etf's.

[stylinexpat]

Either we entered a bear market where you see the pops or are still in a bull market where you buy the dips. Depends on how you see things

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by qba335i

Dako43,

He is trying to make an educated bet that the market will depreciate over the next 2 years, hence the movement to cash (the only liquid/secure asset class - unless you believe in physical gold).

The whole point of going to cash is to maintain the current value and potentially re-purchase at a lower entry point. You can't buy depreciated assets if you don't have cash

Trust me, I understand the incentive to convert your assets to cash prior to a bear market.

The problem with that is that it is called market timing (which mact3333 claims he is not trying to do). Enough studies have been conducted by researchers and experts in this field to prove that market timing, with any reasonable amount of accuracy and efficiency is impractical for the average investor. No one knows if this is the start of a bear market, or if we will see a continued recovery for the next 3-4 years. And by the time it is readily apparent that it is a bear market, you will be selling your assets at a time when willing buyers are lacking.

In fact, it could be argued that the reason for the high levels of volatility over the last year or so is mostly due to investor psychology (ie investors getting nervous feet and cashing out of certain assets and then cashing back in when the market looks better). So not only is successful market timing impractical and improbable for most investors, it is very likely a major reason for why the market is trending the way it is in the first place.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

..or get into bear etf's.

What exactly are bear ETF's?

Do you mean multi-asset funds?

[David70]

Originally Posted by Dalko43

Trust me, I understand the incentive to convert your assets to cash prior to a bear market.

The problem with that is that it is called market timing. And enough studies have been conducted by researchers and experts in this field to prove that market timing, with any reasonable amount of accuracy and efficiency is impractical for the average investor. No one knows if this is the start of a bear market, or if we will see a continued recovery for the next 3-4 years. And by the time it is readily apparent that it is a bear market, you will be selling your assets at a time when willing buyers are lacking.

In fact, it could be argued that the reason for the high levels of volatility over the last year or so is mostly due to investor psychology (ie investors getting nervous feet and cashing out of certain assets and then cashing back in when the market looks better). So not only is successful market timing impractical and improbable for most investors, it is very likely a major reason for why the market is trending the way it is in the first place.

I agree. Seems like he is stating he has a system and it looks like timing to me.

Originally Posted by mact3333 - The reason why I won't reveal my methods is because it has taken a long time to cultivate my methods, why would I reveal them to a free OT message board?...some people, in the past, might have paid me for my services hehe.

I would assume that with any of these studies if you look at enough people you would find people that do better than the market buying and selling at the right time. Whether this is because of luck or skill would be tough to figure out. The only true way to know if he can do better or worse would be to know exactly when and what he buys and sells and then look at his results over a lot of time.

After looking at the research I think the chances of me or anyone beating the market long term through market timing, then looking at the chances of doing worse than the market has me not trying to time it.

If he truly has a system that he could proved worked over time I think he could and should make a lot of money selling these services to others or at least growing what he has quickly. I am skeptical.

[stylinexpat]

Bear market now. Bloodbath pre-market today

[gtron]

another red tag sale?! lol

[stylinexpat]

269 Wal Mart shops closing? Oil under $30...
There is a difference when Gulf States have money and do not have money. The rest of the world will also share the pain of the Gulf States in the Middle East. When oil tanks consequences follows

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by Dalko43

Trust me, I understand the incentive to convert your assets to cash prior to a bear market.

The problem with that is that it is called market timing (which mact3333 claims he is not trying to do). Enough studies have been conducted by researchers and experts in this field to prove that market timing, with any reasonable amount of accuracy and efficiency is impractical for the average investor. No one knows if this is the start of a bear market, or if we will see a continued recovery for the next 3-4 years. And by the time it is readily apparent that it is a bear market, you will be selling your assets at a time when willing buyers are lacking.

In fact, it could be argued that the reason for the high levels of volatility over the last year or so is mostly due to investor psychology (ie investors getting nervous feet and cashing out of certain assets and then cashing back in when the market looks better). So not only is successful market timing impractical and improbable for most investors, it is very likely a major reason for why the market is trending the way it is in the first place.

Keep trading that oil on inventories...during the oil bull when Somali pirates raided 20 barrels of oil and CNBC announced , oil shot up a 1.00 a barrel,...uh huh, I am sure inventories went down significantly that day lol....why don't you you chart the US dollar and oil and flip charts, you seem something interesting?

You do realize that equities are often traded on human emotions...ya see, thats the problem, emotions..... You laugh when I sell my kids 529 yet the last time I did that was in Jan 08 and bought back late 2009.

You say timing isn't possible and practical, lets talk again when SPX near 1200-1300 ok? But Im guessing you won't be posting on here anymore, but guess what, I will cause I started this thread.

Go back and read all my posts and if you think that happened randomly then you haven't been paying attention. Mkt's are traded on shirt/mid/long term time frames and each strategy bit different.


OK people, we are at defcon 4 now. My prediction, this is the weekend mom/pop wake the fukk up.... People will feel trapped this weekend.

Mkt's closed on monday so 3 day weekend to think and worry about retirements. We are one big gap down away on tuesday morning from confirming something bad. But frankly, if you had been reading my posts recently you wouldn't be trying to catch falling knives. Time to be prudent.

Getting close to Defcon 5 with popcorn in hand. Instead of trying to prove me wrong, I would spend my time studying the charts cause were close to some fireworks going off and no I don't profess to know anymore than anyone else, well maybe just you though.....

[stylinexpat]

Short them spikes and pops. Oil most likely going to $20 and markets setting new lows this month and next

[tc328]

Whats not to believe when someone times the market.

It might not be the smartest move but who are we (in this forum) to judge???

If I want to sell my assets or reallocate my stock funds to bonds, MMF, fix income, or cash...thats my bet

Look what has happen since Jan 4th 2016....you can call it luck but I made a dawm good move

[mact3333]

There is a animal with long furry hair starting to make some noise...hint: it ain't a bull...

Defcon 4.5????

[mact3333]

and please remember people, draw the long term trend lines and whatever you do, DO NOT buy the vicious bear rallies that touch the underside of a long term broken trend line...one day you guys will realize how fortuitous it was that I drive a BMW and not MB or Porsche hehe...please excuse my brag post....

AAPL looks broken....hmmm.

[ASBSECU E93]

Originally Posted by mact3333

and please remember people, draw the long term trend lines and whatever you do, DO NOT buy the vicious bear rallies that touch the underside of a long term broken trend line...one day you guys will realize how fortuitous it was that I drive a BMW and not MB or Porsche hehe...please excuse my brag post....

AAPL looks broken....hmmm.

One saving grace - I reduced (significant) positions here in October.

...but all other positions are suffering just the same...

[mact3333]

Thinking Tuesday will be very important where we open and how mkts react...right now is a good spot for a technical bounce back up so if we reverse back for awhile it needs to happen right now.

If we gap down a lot on Tuesday than it will be ugly.

Gotta be trader in this mkt, not an investor....volatility going up from now Im guessing.

JMHO of course as always.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Keep trading that oil on inventories...during the oil bull when Somali pirates raided 20 barrels of oil and CNBC announced , oil shot up a 1.00 a barrel,...uh huh, I am sure inventories went down significantly that day lol....why don't you you chart the US dollar and oil and flip charts, you seem something interesting?

You do realize that equities are often traded on human emotions...ya see, thats the problem, emotions..... You laugh when I sell my kids 529 yet the last time I did that was in Jan 08 and bought back late 2009.

You say timing isn't possible and practical, lets talk again when SPX near 1200-1300 ok? But Im guessing you won't be posting on here anymore, but guess what, I will cause I started this thread.

Go back and read all my posts and if you think that happened randomly then you haven't been paying attention. Mkt's are traded on shirt/mid/long term time frames and each strategy bit different.


OK people, we are at defcon 4 now. My prediction, this is the weekend mom/pop wake the fukk up.... People will feel trapped this weekend.

Mkt's closed on monday so 3 day weekend to think and worry about retirements. We are one big gap down away on tuesday morning from confirming something bad. But frankly, if you had been reading my posts recently you wouldn't be trying to catch falling knives. Time to be prudent.

Getting close to Defcon 5 with popcorn in hand. Instead of trying to prove me wrong, I would spend my time studying the charts cause were close to some fireworks going off and no I don't profess to know anymore than anyone else, well maybe just you though.....

Dude, you're a wannabe posting useless, hours-old market information on a car forum.

Everyone should already know how the markets have been performing over the last few days...and if they don't this is the last place they need to be looking.

You don't think the oil glut has anything to do with its pricing? There are a lot of analysts and researchers (you know the types that write peer-reviewed papers) who disagree with you.

I do agree with you on one thing though. Investor emotions play a huge role in how the market performs. And an ill-informed, naive sub-forum like this only adds to that problem. No one truly knows if the market is going to route or not until after the fact, but calling out stupid warnings like "DEFCON 4" is the kind of thing that will instigate pandemonium and will cause a logjam of people trying to cash out of their investments.

As someone else had already noted, if you truly had an effective strategy for timing the market and only catch the good bull markets while avoiding most of the bear markets, you'd probably be earning a fat paycheck from some trading company or fund group instead of preaching your "insightful" predictions to a bunch of car enthusiasts.

[fazman]

Tuesday prediction

Everything will be green because options expired today coupled with long weekend since no one wants to hold stocks when the market is closed.

Tech is on deck for earnings reporting soon. BABA and AAPL will be moving up. By Feb 1st we will be in a new rally (probably a big one and then watch out for the correction just before election time).