[tc328]

Originally Posted by EstorilM

Ive had USO, UWTI, and COP for a few weeks now. Up about 30%

I heard UWTI is having a reverse split next monday

Not that it changes anything but incase you saw prices jump to $20s and thought you made a $million

[EstorilM]

Originally Posted by tc328

I heard UWTI is having a reverse split next monday

Not that it changes anything but incase you saw prices jump to $20s and thought you made a $million

Good to know. That would have been a letdown lol

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Timing wasn't right but in the end the mkt will fix it for me...I will be off by a week most likely...is that really a big deal in the big scheme of things.?..,.if you think so you are trading very short term....getting worked up for a 30pt SPX day?...really?...

You were wrong the first time and now you say you were just off a week. Looks like you are going to be wrong again. It's up 200 points today alone.

If you keep saying things are going to go down, you'll eventually be right. You are like my hedge fund friends. Very pessimistic and always looking at things in a very bias way as if they are going to go down and crash and burn. Eventually you'll be right, but hopefully this humbles you a bit because you were dead wrong on your calls. The market has a way of humbling people. I'm certainly no expert on it, but I just made the exact opposite call from you to prove a point and I turned out to be right.

[ScarecrowBoat]

Originally Posted by mact3333

lol...I noticed you guys disappeared when I was right too....

Timing wasn't right but in the end the mkt will fix it for me...I will be off by a week most likely...is that really a big deal in the big scheme of things.?..,.if you think so you are trading very short term....getting worked up for a 30pt SPX day?...really?...

I will do roll call in 2 weeks ok...I tell you what, if we make new all time highs before we hit 1700's on SPX I will never post on this thread ever again and we can close it down ok?...thats a promise....

But if we close into the 1700's within the month(I will guess 2-3 weeks from now), you guys either leave or stfu for at least a week ok?....

And yes I still think we see 1200 SPX a year from now...might be a bold statement but at least I will take a stand and make some calls based on my own charts and theories rather than spew empty criticisms(still not a single call).

See you guys in 2 weeks.

tagged...........see you then

[tc328]

Originally Posted by EstorilM

Good to know. That would have been a letdown lol

Gold!!!!

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Timing wasn't right but in the end the mkt will fix it for me...I will be off by a week most likely...is that really a big deal in the big scheme of things.?..,.if you think so you are trading very short term....getting worked up for a 30pt SPX day?...really?...

Do you want to concede defeat now? The market is up another 100+ points today. At this rate there is no way your call can even come close, and as a matter of fact the exact opposite has happened from what you predicted. Not only were you wrong/off, but you were so far off it's not even funny. The exact opposite of what you said would happen, happened.

I hope you did not lose too much money on this. I have empathy.

[tc328]

Dawn, why be a dick about it???

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by tc328

Dawn, why be a dick about it???

Not being a dick, just speaking directly. I said I have empathy. Dicks don't have empathy

This guy was smug early on in the thread about his predictions and it's also dangerous to give stock advice. If anyone had listened to him they would have lost their ass. It's dangerous.

[David70]

I think it is highly unlikely anyone can reliably tell us when the stock market will go up or down. I don't blame the guy above. If anyone makes a prediction of up or down, some will be right and some will be wrong but no one will be right all of the time.

Maybe better luck doing a lot of research on a specific company or working for a specific company (insider trading info) but I have most of my money in index funds because after looking at the track records of managed funds and with only about 20% of them beating the market (after their expenses), even with there big budgets, looking at everything available, and hiring some of the best people, it seems really unlikely to come out ahead.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by tc328

Dawn, why be a dick about it???

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. This is Mact's thread. If you don't like what he says, feel free to exit.

[eluded]

prepare to go short this week! Good luck.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by David70

I think it is highly unlikely anyone can reliably tell us when the stock market will go up or down. I don't blame the guy above. If anyone makes a prediction of up or down, some will be right and some will be wrong but no one will be right all of the time.

Maybe better luck doing a lot of research on a specific company or working for a specific company (insider trading info) but I have most of my money in index funds because after looking at the track records of managed funds and with only about 20% of them beating the market (after their expenses), even with there big budgets, looking at everything available, and hiring some of the best people, it seems really unlikely to come out ahead.

I'm glad to see another reasonable person in this thread. Timing the ups/downs of the market is not what will lead to long term gains....in fact, attemtping to accurately time the market often leads to losses. What drives long run performance is going to be properly allocated/diversified investments given an individuals risk tolerance. That, along with paying attention to fees.

[David70]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

I'm glad to see another reasonable person in this thread. Timing the ups/downs of the market is not what will lead to long term gains....in fact, attemtping to accurately time the market often leads to losses. What drives long run performance is going to be properly allocated/diversified investments given an individuals risk tolerance. That, along with paying attention to fees.

Thanks. The "no one else can do it but I can" mentality seems like a lot of work when research shows that you are probably better off doing nothing day to day. This is one of the few cases where doing nothing has it advantages.

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by David70

Thanks. The "no one else can do it but I can" mentality seems like a lot of work when research shows that you are probably better off doing nothing day to day. This is one of the few cases where doing nothing has it advantages.

Right. Which is why low cost index funds are the way to go. I've been on forums and specifically investing forums for many years and pretty much every time someone posts about their prediction of the market going up or down, they are usually wrong and they get burned. Data shows that timing the market never works yet people still try to do it.

[ScarecrowBoat]

Originally Posted by mact3333

lol...I noticed you guys disappeared when I was right too....

Timing wasn't right but in the end the mkt will fix it for me...I will be off by a week most likely...is that really a big deal in the big scheme of things.?..,.if you think so you are trading very short term....getting worked up for a 30pt SPX day?...really?...

I will do roll call in 2 weeks ok...I tell you what, if we make new all time highs before we hit 1700's on SPX I will never post on this thread ever again and we can close it down ok?...thats a promise....

But if we close into the 1700's within the month(I will guess 2-3 weeks from now), you guys either leave or stfu for at least a week ok?....

And yes I still think we see 1200 SPX a year from now...might be a bold statement but at least I will take a stand and make some calls based on my own charts and theories rather than spew empty criticisms(still not a single call).

See you guys in 2 weeks.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Well, tomorrow will mark two weeks. That would be one hell of a fall in a single day to hit his 1700 target...

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Well, tomorrow will mark two weeks. That would be one hell of a fall in a single day to hit his 1700 target...

Market isn't looking too good. Rising wedge is narrowing and the RSI is in overbought territory for the first time all year.

[Xiaoxi]

From I Will Teach You To Be Rich

Helpburn Capital studied the performance of the S& P 500 from 1983 to 2003, during which time the annualized return of the stock market was 10.01 percent. They noted something amazing: During that twenty-year period, if you missed the best twenty days of investing (the days where the stock market gained the most points), your return would have dropped from 10.01 percent to 5.03 percent. And if you missed the best forty days of investing, your returns would equal only 1.6 percent— a pitiful payback on your money. Unfortunately, we can’t know the best investing days ahead of time. The only long-term solution is to invest regularly, putting as much money as possible into low-cost, diversified funds, even in an economic downturn.

Originally Posted by How to Engineer a Perfect Stock-Picking Record

Since we know it’s almost impossible to beat the market over the long term, let’s turn to probability and luck to explain why some funds seem irresistibly compelling. Although a fund manager might be lucky for one, two, or even three years, it’s mathematically unlikely he’ll continue beating the market. To examine probability theory, let’s take a simple example of an unscrupulous scammer who wants to sell his financial services to some naive investors. He e-mails 10,000 people, half of whom are told that Stock A will go up, the other half Stock B. “This is just a freebie e-mail to demonstrate my insider knowledge,” he might say. After a couple of weeks, he notices that Stock A has indeed gone up by chance. He eliminates the Stock B group and focuses on the Stock A group, e-mailing them an “I told you so” e-mail. This time, he splits the mailing in half again. Twenty-five hundred people are told about Stock C and 2,500 are told about Stock D. If either C or D goes up, on the next cycle, at least 1,250 people will have seen him pick two stocks successfully. And each cycle will make the recipients increasingly awed by his “ability.”

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Market isn't looking too good. Rising wedge is narrowing and the RSI is in overbought territory for the first time all year.

.... Here we go again. Someone else who thinks they can predict the market.

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by mact3333

lol...I noticed you guys disappeared when I was right too....

Timing wasn't right but in the end the mkt will fix it for me...I will be off by a week most likely...is that really a big deal in the big scheme of things.?..,.if you think so you are trading very short term....getting worked up for a 30pt SPX day?...really?...

I will do roll call in 2 weeks ok...I tell you what, if we make new all time highs before we hit 1700's on SPX I will never post on this thread ever again and we can close it down ok?...thats a promise....

But if we close into the 1700's within the month(I will guess 2-3 weeks from now), you guys either leave or stfu for at least a week ok?....

And yes I still think we see 1200 SPX a year from now...might be a bold statement but at least I will take a stand and make some calls based on my own charts and theories rather than spew empty criticisms(still not a single call).

See you guys in 2 weeks.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by e90m305

.... Here we go again. Someone else who thinks they can predict the market.

Read the title bro. It's called Technical analysis...

Get out of this thread if you aren't adding anything productive in this thread. All you do is just whine about people's opinions..

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Get out of this thread if you aren't adding anything productive in this thread. All you do is just whine about people's opinions..

I haven't seen any whining. Just holding people accountable. I posted this on Feb 17th. Looks like my technical analysis was spot on even without posting a fancy chart. Show me the chart from Feb 17th to now. I'd like to see if it went up or down.

Originally Posted by mact3333

Crystal ball says this now, we should sell off abit as we are over bought on VST basis but this will be very short lived...then we head up again to near 1950-70(I take off my long hedges at this point)...then the bear re-emerges and we see some strong selling again making new lows.

Originally Posted by e90m305 on Feb 17th

I disagree. I think we hit bottom and it's quite a ways up from here.

http://www.m3post.com/forums/showpos...postcount=3679