[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

The fed has stopped buying MBS and also started QT over the summer to the tune of $90+ bn per month. Both of these actions are going to help withdraw "the slosh" running through the economy. As such, you are correct, they may not need to go to 4.5-5% to achieve their goal.

There's ~$3tn in excess liquidity that needs to be drained. That's going to happen.

Will something cause the Fed to reverse course? Sure, always possible. It would have to be something absolutely catastrophic for the Fed to reverse course and begin tapering again. They know the mess that they've created the last 20 years and unfortunately, we're in the "everything bubble" where it's impossible to tell what might be the straw that leads to a collapse.

My bet is that we don't see "the pain" until Q1/Q2 next year when large holders of debt will start rolling over into a significantly higher interest rates. Housing has just started to roll over. Wait for 8% mortgages in Q1/Q2 2023.

Servicing $100mm in debt at 2.5% is very different than at 4 or 5%

People like you are always around...and are always proven wrong. The market is resilient.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

People like you are always around...and are always proven wrong. The market is resilient.

Didn't say anything about market resilience. The issue at hand is whether the Fed will pivot and drop rates, or keep them elevated. That's a big change from nearly 40 years of declining rates. The impacts will be wide ranging.

I don't believe we'll have a catastrophe, excluding a major external event. The era of cheap money is ending, which means big changes.

[dangerus_car]

i am doing chart now, and just see that NVDA is now approaching LOW not seen since 3/2021
MSFT too, if lower than Friday low. not seen lower than 3/2021

i m quite confident it will not go below 3/2021 low, tomorrow is bounce back day, it may go lower first to shake out further weak holder as the short probably took it higher on Friday to further short it on Monday.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

Didn't say anything about market resilience. The issue at hand is whether the Fed will pivot and drop rates, or keep them elevated. That's a big change from nearly 40 years of declining rates. The impacts will be wide ranging.

I don't believe we'll have a catastrophe, excluding a major external event. The era of cheap money is ending, which means big changes.

The era of cheap money isn't over. It's on pause.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

The era of cheap money isn't over. It's on pause.

Yes, but cheap money is 5+ years out.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

People like you are always around...and are always proven wrong. The market is resilient.

Reality is somewhere between rose colored glasses and doom.

If you don't think the market and people's finances aren't going to be really rough for the next year+, you're in for a rude awakening. Lots of jobs will be lost, housing market and automotive sales will get crushed, lots of loan defaults/repos, economic growth will be squashed, etc. If you've got a lot money and investments and live within your means and are patient, then you'll be fine. Expect that your portfolio will go down even further than it has, but it will regain in 1+ years.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Reality is somewhere between rose colored glasses and doom.

If you don't think the market and people's finances aren't going to be really rough for the next year+, you're in for a rude awakening. Lots of jobs will be lost, housing market and automotive sales will get crushed, lots of loan defaults/repos, economic growth will be squashed, etc. If you've got a lot money and investments and live within your means and are patient, then you'll be fine. Expect that your portfolio will go down even further than it has, but it will regain in 1+ years.

Who knows. We could have a very positive inflation report on Friday and things can turn on a dime. If the Fed doesn't stick with 75 bps and goes down to 25 bps or so we could be right back in the bull market.

Everyone is so negative right now and usually the majority are wrong with these things so I expect a bull market to resume Q4

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Who knows. We could have a very positive inflation report on Friday and things can turn on a dime. If the Fed doesn't stick with 75 bps and goes down to 25 bps or so we could be right back in the bull market.

Everyone is so negative right now and usually the majority are wrong with these things so I expect a bull market to resume Q4

Very very very doubtful.

I loved watching my portfolio grow quite substantially between the fall of 2020 and early 2022, but deep down, I knew it would get crushed as much of the positivity and growth didn't make much sense. I figure 2 good years of pain, especially over the next 6 months.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Very very very doubtful.

I loved watching my portfolio grow quite substantially between the fall of 2020 and early 2022, but deep down, I knew it would get crushed as much of the positivity and growth didn't make much sense. I figure 2 good years of pain, especially over the next 6 months.

Be greedy when people are fearful.
-Warren Buffett

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Be greedy when people are fearful.
-Warren Buffett

Fear is at highs for the year, not all time highs, but definitely recent highs

[ikonn]

You bulls still out there or should I go back to drinking heavily while reading WSB?

[dangerus_car]

Like i predicted yesterday, today the mega cap did not go below Friday low. NVDA briefly went a few cent below but recover.

Tonight future es and nq is +0.6% and 0.7% as of this post. May change in the morning, lol. I have seen wild swing a + before sleep to - when wake up and vice versa, a - before sleep and + vice versa

This week is a consolidation week, expect volatility. Buy dips when you can. Next week is mark up week.

[antzcrashing]

UK just decided to buy back bonds "until moral improves". How cute

[NeverL8]

Originally Posted by ikonn

You bulls still out there or should I go back to drinking heavily while reading WSB?

We still out here DCAing. Not the best market for WSB material haha.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

There are a lot of ways to measure inflation, but the Fed generally excludes food and energy from their analysis, due to the volatility of their prices. The so-called Core CPI (CPI ex food & energy) rose 0.3% from Jun-Jul, and 0.6% from Jul-Aug. That isn't anywhere near zero; a 0.6% m-o-m increase is 7.2%/yr. If you average the m-o-m increases in Core CPI from Feb-Aug it's still a 6.2% inflation rate. I think your "basically zero" assessment is incorrect.

Going forward the m-o-m numbers are expected to come down, but very slowly. That's in part because there's a big lag in the impact of housing costs, and the increase in those remains high (+0.7% Jul-Aug). They will remain high for quite some time, and make up 30% of the Core CPI, so inflation for that reason alone will remain elevated well into next year.

An additional factor is the impact of the employement rate on inflation, which also remains strong. An unemployment rate of 3.5% creates wage pressures that on their own contribute roughly 4.5% to inflation. As long as unemployment remains low that component will remain high. It's estimated that the unemployment rate has to get to 5.5-6% in order to get the wage component of inflation below 2%.

It's really not complicated. People who have jobs keep spending money, even if they have to borrow to do it. People who do not have jobs do not spend money. In other words, Jobs == Demand. The unemployment rate hasn't barely budged. The Fed needs to decrease demand and is going to keep going until it does. People are going to lose their jobs. Lots of them. That's the "pain" Powell was referring to yesterday.

Link to data referenced above - Consumer Price Index Summary

Core was 0.6 for August, so we are on track to be still fucked a year from now, huh?

[dangerus_car]

Nike is at the lowest price in 2 years. Buy nike. It is at 2 years low due to 44% inventory increase that happens due to supply chain problem. Nike beats earnings.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

Nike is at the lowest price in 2 years. Buy nike. It is at 2 years low due to 44% inventory increase that happens due to supply chain problem. Nike beats earnings.

Yes but China is a mess, and Nike does serious business in China. I own the stock and love the company but am thinking twice before adding to it

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Core was 0.6 for August, so we are on track to be still fucked a year from now, huh?

Yesterday they released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for August, and those data are a little different from the CPI. But, it's also one of the key inflation gauges used by the Fed, and the Core PCE (ex food and energy) was up 0.6% m-o-m. That's a big jump from the 0% in July, but July seems to have been something of an anomaly. The y-o-y number increased to 4.9% from 4.7%, so by that metric inflation clearly isn't dropping fast enough.

I think most would agree that with interest rates at this level inflation will come down. But, will it come down enough? Nobody knows. Will it come down quickly? Well, that's possible, as an unexpected lock-up somewhere might force a pivot. But I think most people are betting at this point that inflation will be with us for some time and interest rates will have to stay high. Which raises the risk that they will end up (or might even already be) too high and we'll get a recession. Or worse, stagflation.

References - Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

Nike is at the lowest price in 2 years. Buy nike. It is at 2 years low due to 44% inventory increase that happens due to supply chain problem. Nike beats earnings.

One of the worst reasons to buy a stock is because it's taken a big dump, as there's usually a good reason for that. In this case either Nike really messed up their forecasting (unlikely, given the strength of their management), or their consumer is either not buying or buying from someone else. None of that's good. It probably pays to be patient and wait to see what their next announcement says.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

UK just decided to buy back bonds "until moral improves". How cute

It was either that or their pension system would have collapsed. Shocking how much these supposedly "conservative" funds are leveraged and how quickly sh*t can go south because of it. The buy-backs are temporary and end mid-October. Truss has a couple of weeks to come up with a better plan. Let's hope she does.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Yesterday they released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for August, and those data are a little different from the CPI. But, it's also one of the key inflation gauges used by the Fed, and the Core PCE (ex food and energy) was up 0.6% m-o-m. That's a big jump from the 0% in July, but July seems to have been something of an anomaly. The y-o-y number increased to 4.9% from 4.7%, so by that metric inflation clearly isn't dropping fast enough.

I think most would agree that with interest rates at this level inflation will come down. But, will it come down enough? Nobody knows. Will it come down quickly? Well, that's possible, as an unexpected lock-up somewhere might force a pivot. But I think most people are betting at this point that inflation will be with us for some time and interest rates will have to stay high. Which raises the risk that they will end up (or might even already be) too high and we'll get a recession. Or worse, stagflation.

References - Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update

Not sure where you are getting these 4.x percent yoy numbers, wasnt it 8.x percent last month?

[chassis]

4.x YOY is core PCE, not total PCE which has an 8-handle YOY.

When people scream the loudest about anything, such as inflation today, it's yesterday's news.

Underlying forces for inflation reversed at the end of 2021. Actual inflation is showing signs of peaking. The economy is large and complex enough that changes take quarters or years to show up in headline numbers.