[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by chassis

4.x YOY is core PCE, not total PCE which has an 8-handle YOY.

When people scream the loudest about anything, such as inflation today, it's yesterday's news.

Underlying forces for inflation reversed at the end of 2021. Actual inflation is showing signs of peaking. The economy is large and complex enough that changes take quarters or years to show up in headline numbers.

"The PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy, also known as the core PCE price index, is released as part of the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report. The core index makes it easier to see the underlying inflation trend by excluding two categories – food and energy – where prices tend to swing up and down more dramatically and more often than other prices. "

This core PCE? Yeah excluding food and energy, while convenient, probably doesn't get to the point of what people are experiencing, especially lower and middle income. So for all practical purposes I pay more attention to the non-core pce numbers in guiding my investment decisions.

[Tyga11]

The best company in the world is on sale today...

[chassis]

Dalio on cash: no longer trash. I have believed this for a long while. Cash is flexibility and non-correlated with equities. I include short duration Treasuries and CDs in my definition of cash.

From his LinkedIn feed today:

As John Maynard Keynes is credited with saying: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Along these lines, the facts have changed and I’ve changed my mind about cash as an asset: I no longer think cash is trash. At existing interest rates and with the Fed shrinking the balance sheet, it is now about neutral—neither a very good or very bad deal. In other words, the short-term interest rate is now about right.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by chassis

Dalio on cash: no longer trash. I have believed this for a long while. Cash is flexibility and non-correlated with equities. I include short duration Treasuries and CDs in my definition of cash.

From his LinkedIn feed today:

As John Maynard Keynes is credited with saying: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Along these lines, the facts have changed and I’ve changed my mind about cash as an asset: I no longer think cash is trash. At existing interest rates and with the Fed shrinking the balance sheet, it is now about neutral—neither a very good or very bad deal. In other words, the short-term interest rate is now about right.

What percent of your portfolio is currently in cash?

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What percent of your portfolio is currently in cash?

Significant. More than conventional wisdom would suggest. Majority is equities. Yours?

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by chassis

Significant. More than conventional wisdom would suggest. Majority is equities. Yours?

Are you not worried that you will miss an upswing run? What are you looking to see happen that would get you to put more of your cash into equity positions

[chassis]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Are you not worried that you will miss an upswing run? What are you looking to see happen that would get you to put more of your cash into equity positions

Not worried. No FOMO.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by chassis

Significant. More than conventional wisdom would suggest. Majority is equities. Yours?

100% equities. I was down 1% today with tesla being down...sucks but it is what it is I guess

[dangerus_car]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

not a financial advise, just my opinion

on monday, two things can happen (see friday's last hour trading)
1. it will rally and if it is, it shows that it hits a higher low since it's a bit higher than june low
2. if monday goes lower, it will go lower just a little bit below (0.5% max below the lowest june low) the june low for SPY and QQQ, again, to shake-out-the-weak as you can see on today's trading, it reaches low, then went back up pretty strong. once it hits that low below June low, it will go back up strong, it can happen either after few hours in early trading pre lunch (probably pre market sunday and monday market will go lower than june low, to shake those out), then start trading monday, all sells after stop losses, or slowly going down, then go back up after 1 PM EDT.

as i m pretty sure, many stop losses are around that area, market makers are going to feast on that stop losses, that is if you are playing QQQ and SPY.

if you are playing stock, i don't think it will go lower than fridays low, especially for mega cap. just check on thursday. when SPY and QQQ went red, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL were actually green, very strong, it just went red friday due to SPY and QQQ pressure that was too strong. if early monday is sell, mega caps will not go lower than friday low.

then the rest of the last september week will be a consolidation week as Market Makers will start its accumulation phase, then early first week october is mark up week, 2nd October week is distribution week, then come the CPI report. CPI will make it either a stair case going up again, or will go down big red to erase all the first week mark up gain.

that's my assessment, play-by-play for the next 3 weeks

as predicted, first week of October is mark up week... S&P500 (ES) future will probably go up to 3850 before slowly going up to 3900 max before consolidation before CPI report oct 13. 3900 was previous support zone from early to mid September before breaking down on 3rd week of September.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

as predicted, first week of October is mark up week... S&P500 (ES) future will probably go up to 3850 before slowly going up to 3900 max before consolidation before CPI report oct 13. 3900 was previous support zone from early to mid September before breaking down on 3rd week of September.

Are you bullish?

[dangerus_car]

bullish this week (market way oversold in september) until next week, that CPI report can't really tell market reaction.

i will keep cash in hand and play it on the day after CPI is released, bull or bear.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

bullish this week (market way oversold in september) until next week, that CPI report can't really tell market reaction.

i will keep cash in hand and play it on the day after CPI is released, bull or bear.

September 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 13, 2022, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time

[dangerus_car]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

as predicted, first week of October is mark up week... S&P500 (ES) future will probably go up to 3850 before slowly going up to 3900 max before consolidation before CPI report oct 13. 3900 was previous support zone from early to mid September before breaking down on 3rd week of September.

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

September 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 13, 2022, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time

yes, i said that earlier... will keep cash to play on that day

if you are aggressive, you can play BOTH call and put on the day before. it will either surge up or down for all stocks.

by playing both, the gain is unlimited on one end while the loss is limited to maximum 100% only on the other end. unless it's moving static, which means you lose both capital, by playing both, you can erase the limited loss with the unlimited gain. based on prior history, the CPI report will be sensitive to either direction, it won't be static for sure.

if you play it right on the day before, which means buy call on/near the low of the day, and buy put on/near the high of the day (instead of buying both at the same time), your gain will be even better.

[dangerus_car]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

One of the worst reasons to buy a stock is because it's taken a big dump, as there's usually a good reason for that. In this case either Nike really messed up their forecasting (unlikely, given the strength of their management), or their consumer is either not buying or buying from someone else. None of that's good. It probably pays to be patient and wait to see what their next announcement says.

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Yes but China is a mess, and Nike does serious business in China. I own the stock and love the company but am thinking twice before adding to it

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

Nike is at the lowest price in 2 years. Buy nike. It is at 2 years low due to 44% inventory increase that happens due to supply chain problem. Nike beats earnings.

did i tell you to buy NKE on the day it dropped after earnings? see where NKE is now, it's filling up the gap yes, some of the move is due to overall market direction, but still... like today, most stock took a dive in the AM before recovering, as of NKE, it went up since the day started

[Chick Webb]

Despite the (predictable) short-term bounce from last week's debacle, today on Options Actions they were discussing NKE. All three pros said "stay away". Chart supports that, I think. Certainly it's nothing I'd want to own right now.

As to the overall market, the only real question now is how low will it go between now and the end of the month and will we finally see a 40 VIX?

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Despite the (predictable) short-term bounce from last week's debacle, today on Options Actions they were discussing NKE. All three pros said "stay away". Chart supports that, I think. Certainly it's nothing I'd want to own right now.

As to the overall market, the only real question now is how low will it go between now and the end of the month and will we finally see a 40 VIX?

Holding some short term vix calls

[Tyga11]

I've taken quite the beating this week. My portfolio is down 35% YTD. It is what it is. Yes, I know it's more than the Nasdaq and more than the S&P500.

You know it's bad when you check your account end of day and your only down 1%

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Despite the (predictable) short-term bounce from last week's debacle, today on Options Actions they were discussing NKE. All three pros said "stay away". Chart supports that, I think. Certainly it's nothing I'd want to own right now.

As to the overall market, the only real question now is how low will it go between now and the end of the month and will we finally see a 40 VIX?

Chick Webb what trades have you made in the last 90 days? Where are you taking your portfolio?

[dangerus_car]

going up or down depends on oct 13 cpi report, that's the catalyst up or down.

between monday and wednesday the 12, stock will be in range due to uncertainty

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by chassis

Chick Webb what trades have you made in the last 90 days? Where are you taking your portfolio?

Haven't made many investments in the past 6 months or so; holding absurd amounts of cash. As I said earlier in this thread (or maybe in another), I'm looking for AAPL to hit $120-130, SPY to hit $350-320, and the VIX to spike close to 40 before I consider pretty much anything investible. That said, I did buy a small amount of AMD today because their multiple got stupid low after the red flag they threw up yesterday. There are other semi's that I'm keeping a close eye on, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

I have been making some trades, though. In the last several months I've both gotten killed and spiked some VIX options trades and am about even for the year on those at this point; I had the right idea, but my timing was off and the August calls didn't work out. It looks like I'm going to make a little on some EWG puts and if I do I'll take some of the profits and roll those forward. I have a nice profit in XLE calls that I bought last week and actually rolled those up to take the profits and extend the position a little further out into '23. If oil spikes that could pay off handsomely.

I was supposed to have a call yesterday with my Schwab guys to set up bearish reversals on a few things, thinking that I could make some money in the short term and pick up the shares to hold if/when they dropped. But for some reason my phone didn't ring and I missed them, and that idea got a lot more expensive today, dammit. Will re-assess over the weekend and come up with new strike prices, I think, because there are some things that I'm willing to buy if they drop another 5+% or so.

[antzcrashing]

Facebook (Meta) - trade it or fade it?

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Haven't made many investments in the past 6 months or so; holding absurd amounts of cash. As I said earlier in this thread (or maybe in another), I'm looking for AAPL to hit $120-130, SPY to hit $350-320, and the VIX to spike close to 40 before I consider pretty much anything investible. That said, I did buy a small amount of AMD today because their multiple got stupid low after the red flag they threw up yesterday. There are other semi's that I'm keeping a close eye on, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

I have been making some trades, though. In the last several months I've both gotten killed and spiked some VIX options trades and am about even for the year on those at this point; I had the right idea, but my timing was off and the August calls didn't work out. It looks like I'm going to make a little on some EWG puts and if I do I'll take some of the profits and roll those forward. I have a nice profit in XLE calls that I bought last week and actually rolled those up to take the profits and extend the position a little further out into '23. If oil spikes that could pay off handsomely.

I was supposed to have a call yesterday with my Schwab guys to set up bearish reversals on a few things, thinking that I could make some money in the short term and pick up the shares to hold if/when they dropped. But for some reason my phone didn't ring and I missed them, and that idea got a lot more expensive today, dammit. Will re-assess over the weekend and come up with new strike prices, I think, because there are some things that I'm willing to buy if they drop another 5+% or so.

What is an absurd amount of cash to you, in terms of % of net worth or # of months' worth of living expenses?