[kabrichx]

http://www.autonews.com/article/2017...-times-goodbye

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

This article will be included in “Redesigning the Industry,” a five-part Automotive News series exploring the future of a business in the throes of change. Part I begins in our Nov. 6 issue with a focus on “Predictions & Possibilities.”

It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era.

...in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.

Of course, there will be a transition period. Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap.

Before someone makes a fool of themselves with a “Who’s Bob Lutz?” post, Bob Lutz is a former vice chairman and head of product development at General Motors. He also held senior executive positions with Ford, Chrysler, BMW and Opel.

While heading up Chrysler, he was responsible for giving the Viper the green light, so it’s not like he is anti-Performance cars.

[pz619]

Interesting perspective. Although, 20 to 25 years? No.

50 years. Maybe.

[Z K]

What he says is the future of transportation. It is much more efficient to automate driving than have humans drive themselves... but it'll be much less fun.

[tiltmode43]

Interesting read of a dystopian future!

Excerpt:

So auto retailing will be OK for the next 10, maybe 15 years as the auto companies make autonomous vehicles that still carry the manufacturer's brand and are still on the highway.

But dealerships are ultimately doomed. And I think Automotive News is doomed. Car and Driver is done; Road & Track is done. They are all facing a finite future. They'll be replaced by a magazine called Battery and Module read by the big fleets.

The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, the media surrounding it — all will be gone in 20 years.

[allinon72]

I think the market will determine that, Bob. If anyone should know that, it would be you.

[BayE30]

We got another 20yrs at least.

[starbai]

I'd like to see them try to take my car away from me.

U think gun laws can't change. Car guys are just as crazy.

[overcoil]

I really wonder if self driving cars are the future. Like the nuclear age or steam age, artificial intelligence and computer memory storage may just be a blip along our civilization's progress.
The massive data storage of today...I'm not covinced that's the future.
I can't explain it but I see advances in language and mathematics as the future as it has always been and the use of materials and intergrating them a continual reinvention as it has always been.

[kabrichx]

Originally Posted by starbai

I'd like to see them try to take my car away from me.

U think gun laws can't change. Car guys are just as crazy.

Those type car guys are just a small percentage compared to 2nd Admendment Advicates. And not as well organized without lobbying as well.

Playing Devils Advocate, pedestrians and bicyclists outlawed on Interstate already. And there are already HOV lanes. Also a minimum speed on Interstates.

Not inconceivable human operated cars could be sidelined from Interstates to the 2 lane backroads - in the first phase.

[GuidoK]

If the past has learned us one thing, its that the future can't be predicted....

[kabrichx]

Originally Posted by GuidoK

If the past has learned us one thing, its that the future can't be predicted....

Incorrect.

It’s taught us some have a track record at being mostly correct....while others miss the boat entirely.

[GuidoK]

No one is mostly correct. Loads of big things that totally rule our lives now werent predicted....at all.
I dont know how old you are, but the older you get, the more things you remember one couldnt imagine in past days.

The future cant be predicted.

[NickyC]

The autonomous vehicle train has left the station faaaaaaaaaaaaaaar ahead of itself. Decades away, if ever, before you see those types of vehicles being the majority.

[GuidoK]

I could see the way we drive would be changing, but what Bob Lutz is talking about is also giving up ownership of transportation. And I dont see that happening at all.
Taxi's have been around for ages but that hasnt resulted in giving up ownership of vehicles/transportation.

Since there were cars, car culture picked up immediately in a big way. It's something people want.
People have an urge to express their individuality through physical means. Be it houses, cars, jewelry. And the free market fills in that gap by providing that; the more you pay, the more/better/exclusive things you get.

[geogerf]

People love cars too much to ever give them up! There will probably be a luxury tax (and insurance to match) to drive one if we ever see the day of full automation.

[Alfisti]

Unless driving is outlawed globally i don't see the market accepting the change naturally.

What WILL happen is that eventually someone will admit they cannot get full autonomy working with other drivers on the road so it will only work if all the cars are talking to each other and there is no driver, which right now no one wants to admit but it clearly true.

[kabrichx]

Originally Posted by GuidoK

No one is mostly correct. Loads of big things that totally rule our lives now werent predicted....at all.
I dont know how old you are, but the older you get, the more things you remember one couldnt imagine in past days.

The future cant be predicted.

People who spend their lives in an Industry such as Automotive have a long history of having a pulse on the public and where things are going in the field.

To deny that means all business is not strategic, but luck of the draw.

You fail to realize a very respected trade published this article because it is Bob Lutz and his track record running the top Automotive Companies in the Industry over his lifetime is unmatched.

[vinylengraver]

See, I do not think it is possible for ALL vehicles to be fully autonomous, ever.
Just like there is no such thing as gun-free society.
Armed forces and law enforcement will always have access to human-powered means of transportation. And it will run on internal combustion. If anything, in the unlikely event it all turns to shit and power goes down.

And if they have them, others will want them too.

Besides, they surely must have watched Terminator and do not want a real Skynet disaster to happen, right?
Anyway, I will make sure my grandchildren know how to operate a manual transmission, gas powered car... there will be one sitting under a tarp in old man's garage. Just in case.
And a motorcycle - way better to negotiate curbs, sidewalks and all other narrow passages.

[starbai]

Originally Posted by kabrichx

Those type car guys are just a small percentage compared to 2nd Admendment Advicates. And not as well organized without lobbying as well.

Playing Devils Advocate, pedestrians and bicyclists outlawed on Interstate already. And there are already HOV lanes. Also a minimum speed on Interstates.

Not inconceivable human operated cars could be sidelined from Interstates to the 2 lane backroads - in the first phase.

There hasn't been a need for organizing in this capacity just far. Gun rights have been under fire ever since this country was founded.

I'd be first in line for any organization that fought for my rights to keep my vehicle.

To be clear I have no problem with HOV lanes and allowing those who want to use autonomous cars to do so. But to outlaw driving is a whole different story.

[insanecoder]

What hes is saying is that he sees the trend and it is that essentially we are all going to be transported via automated transport of sorts going forward
Essentially another vision of a facet of a sterilized society
where noone is allowed to do anything out of line let alone drive their own car
the auto is the symbol of individual freedom
im sure the rich and privileged will be able to drive on their own though but thats great if yer in the club

[GuidoK]

Originally Posted by kabrichx

To deny that means all business is not strategic, but luck of the draw.

The knive cuts both ways. Acknowledging it means that all plans would work out, all products would succeed and no businesses would fail....
And strategic management usually focusses on a scope of 5 years, not 2 decades.
Its impossible to predict things on that level.


And in 20 years... do we drive electric(battery operated) or will it be hydrogen? nobody can tell.
And those are just technological features. What here is the big issue is how we precieve transportation. Giving up ownership. Not owning your own car/transportation anymore, but call upon some service that sends you a pod.
Thats a totally different game. And thats what he's talking about. Thats what he's predicting.
Apparantly you're a believer in that. And I'm not.

[kabrichx]

Originally Posted by GuidoK

The knive cuts both ways. Acknowledging it means that all plans would work out, all products would succeed and no businesses would fail....
And strategic management usually focusses on a scope of 5 years, not 2 decades.
Its impossible to predict things on that level.


And in 20 years... do we drive electric(battery operated) or will it be hydrogen? nobody can tell.
And those are just technological features. What here is the big issue is how we precieve transportation. Giving up ownership. Not owning your own car/transportation anymore, but call upon some service that sends you a pod.
Thats a totally different game. And thats what he's talking about. Thats what he's predicting.
Apparantly you're a believer in that. And I'm not.

I do believe when I see enough of the smartest people in every field focusing on the fact that robotics and automation will eliminate roughly 33% of the current jobs in the next 10-20 years.

This is just part of that future that virtually every influential industry leader is predicting.

At one time horse owners also stated “let them try and replace my horse...telling me I cannot use the paths into town”.

Time driving is a waste of time, even if some enjoy it.

Human productivity is increasing dramatically with the help of automation to do the mundane tasks.

Disruption is real and happening daily.