[bimmer456]

There is a limited supply of cobalt in the world, needed to make lithium-ion batteries. Most of the reserves are in the Congo. China is buying up all the cobalt in the Congo to corner the market. With the spike in cobalt prices will be the increase in the price of electric vehicles. This is not an issue with ICE vehicles, which use much less cobalt. Perhaps the death nail of the ICE and the rise of electrics is pre-mature until they figure out an alternative for electric vehicle battery.

[eluded]

Are rare earth elements fossil fuel's?

[ORIGIN M.]

Nice try.

The death of ICE is imminent!

[bimmer456]

Originally Posted by eluded

Are rare earth elements fossil fuel's?

They're non-renewable, there isn't a way to manufacture them that is cost effective just like making fossil fuels from scratch is not practical.

[RABAUKE]

Originally Posted by ORIGIN M.

Nice try.

The death of ICE is imminent!

I'm not so sure. I don't disagree that there needs to be a shift away from fossil fuels, but at this point in time I don't think there is a viable alternative. There are some interesting things happening with EV's and Hybrids but despite what Tesla is doing I don't think you'll see ICE vehicles disappear anytime soon.

I say this for a number of reasons, Government in some countries has drawn a line in the sand saying ICE vehicles will no longer be produced, other countries are more vague about that. But lets say the US passed a law that after 2030 ICE production and import would be outlawed, will they also then force people who bought new ICE vehicles in 2029 to scrap them? There are lots of cars on the road now that are over a decade old, so moving forward from that 2030 date there could still be ICE vehicles on the road for decades.

There are lots of logistic and infrastructure problems with charging if even 25% of the vehicles on the road were EV's. A couple of years ago when the Ontario Government started offering huge incentives for EV purchases and stated that they wanted to see 10% EV's on the road Toronto Hydro came out and said the grid in Toronto could not handle the increased load, many homes in Toronto don't have on the property parking leaving car owners parking on the street where they can find a spot. How do you charge your EV when your car is parked blocks from where you live and in a different place everyday. I know thats a minor problem, however it's a problem that needs to be overcome.

I've posted a number or articles that discuss infrastructure issues, charging issues, range issues etc.

I'm not suggesting that an alternative to our current model isn't coming, I'm just not convinced that it's right around the corner.

I've learned not to make blunt/gross generalizations as they often don't end up being true.

[mkoesel]

http://www.electronicdesign.com/powe...able-batteries

As with all other things EV, smart people will figure it out. Combine this or similar tech with the upcoming switch (next decade) to solid state batteries and thats two barriers lifted.

Originally Posted by RABAUKE

I'm not suggesting that an alternative to our current model isn't coming, I'm just not convinced that it's right around the corner.

It definitely isn’t “right around the corner”. As with most any other paradigm shift, it’s safe to ignore the folks at the extreme ends of the spectrum. In this case that’s, “ICE will be gone by 202x” and “EV will never work for the masses”.

[Chihuahua]

Just tell Chevy to build more Cobalts, then turn them into batteries.

[ORIGIN M.]

Originally Posted by RABAUKE

I'm not so sure. I don't disagree that there needs to be a shift away from fossil fuels, but at this point in time I don't think there is a viable alternative. There are some interesting things happening with EV's and Hybrids but despite what Tesla is doing I don't think you'll see ICE vehicles disappear anytime soon.

I say this for a number of reasons, Government in some countries has drawn a line in the sand saying ICE vehicles will no longer be produced, other countries are more vague about that. But lets say the US passed a law that after 2030 ICE production and import would be outlawed, will they also then force people who bought new ICE vehicles in 2029 to scrap them? There are lots of cars on the road now that are over a decade old, so moving forward from that 2030 date there could still be ICE vehicles on the road for decades.

There are lots of logistic and infrastructure problems with charging if even 25% of the vehicles on the road were EV's. A couple of years ago when the Ontario Government started offering huge incentives for EV purchases and stated that they wanted to see 10% EV's on the road Toronto Hydro came out and said the grid in Toronto could not handle the increased load, many homes in Toronto don't have on the property parking leaving car owners parking on the street where they can find a spot. How do you charge your EV when your car is parked blocks from where you live and in a different place everyday. I know thats a minor problem, however it's a problem that needs to be overcome.

I've posted a number or articles that discuss infrastructure issues, charging issues, range issues etc.

I'm not suggesting that an alternative to our current model isn't coming, I'm just not convinced that it's right around the corner.

I've learned not to make blunt/gross generalizations as they often don't end up being true.

China drives the market.

The numbers don't lie.

See for yourself.

[RABAUKE]

Originally Posted by ORIGIN M.

China drives the market.

The numbers don't lie.

See for yourself.

China drives a lot of things, but I suspect the markets are also driven by demand. EV's in the current form and support won't/don't suit many people. I just bought a diesel MB small SUV, I'm retired and plan on keeping the thing for at least 10-15 years, so with all due respect, your firm stance doesn't fit my narrative.

But I guess we can log back on here in 10 years or so and see if the ICE is extinct and we're all driving EV's.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by RABAUKE

China drives a lot of things, but I suspect the markets are also driven by demand. EV's in the current form and support won't/don't suit many people. I just bought a diesel MB small SUV, I'm retired and plan on keeping the thing for at least 10-15 years, so with all due respect, your firm stance doesn't fit my narrative.

But I guess we can log back on here in 10 years or so and see if the ICE is extinct and we're all driving EV's.

Commercial jet aircraft = jet fuel = gasoline = ICE vehicles...

[ORIGIN M.]

Originally Posted by RABAUKE

China drives a lot of things, but I suspect the markets are also driven by demand. EV's in the current form and support won't/don't suit many people. I just bought a diesel MB small SUV, I'm retired and plan on keeping the thing for at least 10-15 years, so with all due respect, your firm stance doesn't fit my narrative.

But I guess we can log back on here in 10 years or so and see if the ICE is extinct and we're all driving EV's.

I'm not talking about your old dog polluter.

I am talking about what will drive the market moving forward.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by RABAUKE

I'm not so sure. I don't disagree that there needs to be a shift away from fossil fuels, but at this point in time I don't think there is a viable alternative. There are some interesting things happening with EV's and Hybrids but despite what Tesla is doing I don't think you'll see ICE vehicles disappear anytime soon.

I say this for a number of reasons, Government in some countries has drawn a line in the sand saying ICE vehicles will no longer be produced, other countries are more vague about that. But lets say the US passed a law that after 2030 ICE production and import would be outlawed, will they also then force people who bought new ICE vehicles in 2029 to scrap them? There are lots of cars on the road now that are over a decade old, so moving forward from that 2030 date there could still be ICE vehicles on the road for decades.

There are lots of logistic and infrastructure problems with charging if even 25% of the vehicles on the road were EV's. A couple of years ago when the Ontario Government started offering huge incentives for EV purchases and stated that they wanted to see 10% EV's on the road Toronto Hydro came out and said the grid in Toronto could not handle the increased load, many homes in Toronto don't have on the property parking leaving car owners parking on the street where they can find a spot. How do you charge your EV when your car is parked blocks from where you live and in a different place everyday. I know thats a minor problem, however it's a problem that needs to be overcome.

I've posted a number or articles that discuss infrastructure issues, charging issues, range issues etc.

I'm not suggesting that an alternative to our current model isn't coming, I'm just not convinced that it's right around the corner.

I've learned not to make blunt/gross generalizations as they often don't end up being true.

The "banning" of ICE would be in manufacturing and new sales. No one is gong to tow your old ICE car away. Much like new emissions and safety regulations, in 40 years, a "vintage" ICE can be registered and driven on the road as much as old early 20th century cars are today.

[RABAUKE]

Originally Posted by ORIGIN M.

I'm not talking about your old dog polluter.

I am talking about what will drive the market moving forward.

My statement was in reply to:


Originally Posted by ORIGIN M. View Post
Nice try.

The death of ICE is imminent!

[RABAUKE]

Originally Posted by jmg

The "banning" of ICE would be in manufacturing and new sales. No one is gong to tow your old ICE car away. Much like new emissions and safety regulations, in 40 years, a "vintage" ICE can be registered and driven on the road as much as old early 20th century cars are today.

Again, my reply was to :


Originally Posted by ORIGIN M. View Post
Nice try.

The death of ICE is imminent!

[ORIGIN M.]

Originally Posted by RABAUKE

My statement was in reply to:


Originally Posted by ORIGIN M. View Post
Nice try.

The death of ICE is imminent!

Got it.

ICE will be dying.

Regardless of what you are buying.

[RABAUKE]

Originally Posted by ORIGIN M.

Got it.

ICE will be dying.

Regardless of what you are buying.

Did you read my post? I didn't say ICE was around forever. What I said was that I don't think it's demise is imminent. Why are so many people so "all or nothing"?

[allinon72]

Without government subsidies, the EV market in the US would barely be economically viable. That alone tells me that gas engines will be around for a while. Especially with Trump in office.

[ORIGIN M.]

Originally Posted by allinon72

Without government subsidies, the EV market in the US would barely be economically viable. That alone tells me that gas engines will be around for a while. Especially with Trump in office.

That is changing in a huge way.

Battery prices are the key to the equation and is drastically dropping daily.

[cjb762]

The supply of cobalt is finite - just like almost everything else - but it is also recyclable, unlike fossil fuel.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by bimmer456

There is a limited supply of cobalt in the world, needed to make lithium-ion batteries. Most of the reserves are in the Congo. China is buying up all the cobalt in the Congo to corner the market. With the spike in cobalt prices will be the increase in the price of electric vehicles. This is not an issue with ICE vehicles, which use much less cobalt. Perhaps the death nail of the ICE and the rise of electrics is pre-mature until they figure out an alternative for electric vehicle battery.

You guys have your USA domestic blinders on. We can sit around here all day and speculate about Trump this and Government rebates that, but none of it much matters. The rest of the world is moving on without us.

The US domestic auto market sold a hair under 18M vehicles in 2016: http://www.latimes.com/business/auto...104-story.html

China, meanwhile sold 24M vehicles in 2016: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ales-in-china/

That's right kids, china is the world's largest auto producer, accounting for roughly 1/3 of the world's auto production, with the bulk of their vehicles being sold at home to their market of 1.4 Billion consumers. It doesn't take a mathematician to understand that despite being the biggest manufacturer of vehicles, China's own market is still in its infancy. They have massive room for growth and untapped consumers. China is also pushing the electrification of vehicles while the US holds on to status quo for dear life. So china's move to shore up cobalt reserves is, in my opinion, 100% self focused. They want to ensure a supply of raw materials to feed their own domestic growth and the hell with the rest of us.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by allinon72

Without government subsidies, the EV market in the US would barely be economically viable. That alone tells me that gas engines will be around for a while. Especially with Trump in office.

Until we run out of fossil fuels. Then we will be behind and scrambling. Thanks trump.

[bimmer456]

Originally Posted by jmg

Until we run out of fossil fuels. Then we will be behind and scrambling. Thanks trump.

Actually gas and diesel engines can be converted to run on Ethanol or Bio Diesel pretty easily and those are renewable. So we can enjoy revving our engines and disturbing our neighbors for ages to come! After all, that's why we drive BMW's, isn't it?