[M-technik-3]

Glad I moved money around in 2021. Tough just watching it drop and drop and seeing no end in site.

[OkieSnuffBox]

Originally Posted by M-technik-3

Glad I moved money around in 2021. Tough just watching it drop and drop and seeing no end in site.

I'm sure the wall st folks will keep tanking it just enough to get the Feds involved, then buy it all back up at lower prices.

You know, like they have done for the last 80 years.

I'm just going to keep plowing money into the Money Market and 401k, either I'll live to see it, or my fiance will do well if something happens to me. She will already get the equity in the house, my life insurance, and my retirement accounts.

Should be plenty to buy her a nice place in Florida or Arizona.

[ryan stewart]

Its gonna go down, there isnt anything to do to stop the recession, we were in a post-pandemic bubble and our economy has been so heavily debt fueled that the increase in rates was going to hit it hard.

But its kind of "damned if you don't" as they couldn't just do nothing else people would lose their minds over inflation, which is also, at least for now, going to stay bad because of insane transport costs. A 40ft'er from China used to be $3800, now its "down" to $15,000 (from hitting up to $20k).

[UncleWede]

Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox

Should be plenty to buy her a nice piece of Florida or Arizona.

Are those new-er escort names?

[Nachbar]

Chart looks nice though. Oversold on the monthly. To me, the bottom is close. I'm not trading stocks, but I'm interested, because Bitcoin and Shitcoins correlate with the stock market.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by M-technik-3

Tough just watching it drop and drop and seeing no end in site.

No end? There's always an end. In this case, when the market decides for sure that the Fed's done raising interest rates, that'll be it.

We're already seeing the market sniffing the end, like today when the minutes of the last Fed board meeting came out. Those were largely interpreted as a re-commitment to continuing to raising rates, even if it causes a recession. Which you'd think would be bad news. But the market is forward-looking, and knows that if the Fed does cause a recession it will have to lower rates next year. Which will be good for earnings next year, and thus the market went up a bit today.

That said, there's still a lot of uncertainty. What are we going to hear when Q2 earnings come out? Can the ECB raise rates or will the strong dollar cause a deep recession there? Will inflation fall and how fast? Will unemployment rise? Will Putin keep Nordstream 1 shut down past July 21? Will oil stay below $100? Will the ILWU strike? Is China really reopening? All of those could cause a significant change in expectations and the direction of the market.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by ryan stewart

Its gonna go down, there isnt anything to do to stop the recession, we were in a post-pandemic bubble and our economy has been so heavily debt fueled that the increase in rates was going to hit it hard.

But its kind of "damned if you don't" as they couldn't just do nothing else people would lose their minds over inflation, which is also, at least for now, going to stay bad because of insane transport costs. A 40ft'er from China used to be $3800, now its "down" to $15,000 (from hitting up to $20k).

That's crazy! I didn't realize it was that bad.

[RothwellSF]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

That's crazy! I didn't realize it was that bad.

At it's peek, I was paying 28k per container around Xmas time / after. Now, its 8K (China to US West). This is only 6 months later. Rewind to 2020, like other poster said, it was around $3800. So we're still paying roughly 2x normal. Container prices look like a shiitcoin stock chart...

My forwarders are thinking prices will continue to drop but not too much more. I hope we get back to 4k but we will see.

[WallySlash]

Originally Posted by RothwellSF

At it's peek, I was paying 28k per container around Xmas time / after. Now, its 8K (China to US West). This is only 6 months later. Rewind to 2020, like other poster said, it was around $3800. So we're still paying roughly 2x normal. Container prices look like a shiitcoin stock chart...

My forwarders are thinking prices will continue to drop but not too much more. I hope we get back to 4k but we will see.

I think the carriers have learned that flooding the market with space doesn’t keep rates at a compensatory level. Expect to see port omissions and blank sailings.

[RothwellSF]

Originally Posted by WallySlash

I think the carriers have learned that flooding the market with space doesn’t keep rates at a compensatory level. Expect to see port omissions and blank sailings.

Yep.
For reference, shipping the same 40ft container from the USA to China is around $900-1100 bucks. (minus all the port fees / bond ect)

When I say my container is 8000, only the shipping from A to B is $8000. Im actually paying $12000 to be delivered to my warehouse. Around $2000 in port fees and around $2000 in pickup/dropoff delivery.

For the record, I think as long as they continue to raise interest rates there will be some "chop" in the markets. I think the dow has actually maintained support around 30k. I think it could and probably should go lower to correct. I think housing market, especially where I live in CA should see a 20-30% correction. Especially since it went up 30% in 2 years. I think we could see 2 years of gains erased in both the stock market and housing. But maybe it's just wishful thinking as we are looking to buy a home. And don't trust a realtor when they say rates are historically low. That's such a realtor answer. We "hopefully" won't ever see rates above 15% in our lifetime, would cause an absolute hailstorm of problems and this economy would collapse.

[ryan stewart]

Not shocking my info is based on aggregate and a bit stale compared to you guys who are in it. Im not actually shipping shit, Im a speculative investor (one of my majors was finance, got put it to use somehow) and Im constantly digging for pointers and opportunities. I YOLO (not really, I have a "play account" but am hyper aggressive) but not WSB type where I follow memes, I look for shit about to hit the fan, load up on puts, and then cash out on short term gains.

Also be interesting to see what the yield curve does. We have inverted a million times without a recession but if its sustained a recession happens within a year almost every time. Are are past due in the business cycle, all the toys in the feds toolbox has been able to soften the cycles but nothing has ever ended it.

Buuuutttt, were in uncharted territory. We had a (fucking hopefully) 1 in 100 year pandemic and the last one happened in a completely different economy and the fed had not encountered the great depression yet.

But too much shit scans. We are having sustained droughts basically anything southwest of Kansas City. Right now southwest KS is looking at a 37% yields, a good chunk of Ukraine is offline and another good chunk is being stolen by Russia, and California is in a bad state (I know its fun to go "LOL libs" but you know how much domestic production is there?). Pandemic, dust bowl, political instability, yay. Beyond the price of grain we might be looking at literally not being able to get sh*t. Almond trees love to just fucking DIE if they dont get an excessive amount of water.

Honestly the OP asked the wrong question anyway, the DOW is trash as a marker. There is a lot more going on we should worry about how 30 high cap companies are "worth."

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

if anyone knew they would be rich

[ryan stewart]

Originally Posted by BMWmen

Scary info for Tesla. TSLA will crash to $200 to $300. All the giants have crashed -45%

Tesla has long-term problems, everyone else is getting into a game they basically had to themselves. And the meme stock stuff is wearing off. Musk has been pandering to a market lately that would never bought his vehicles anyway.

Ford, you know the company that sells a truck (on average) every minute, already put that ugly cyber truck on the back burner by making an extremely competent electric vehicle on an existing platform they already service and maintain at their 3000+ dealerships across the country. And even included features in it tesla didnt even think about (far more useful ones than a hard sliding bed cover and matching ATV).

[unluky]

You only "lose" when you sell. LOL!

Easier said than done, but I see the lows as a buying opportunity and a chance to cost average. 2008 was tough to watch, but now I see it made me great money in the long run. There were 3 years afterwards that my yearly gains were more than my gross income.

If you didn't get out at the top - hold the line and wait. At least that is what I am doing, but I have time to wait for the recovery. Might not be true for everyone.

[UncleWede]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Exactly, it baffles me when I hear 40 yos talking about the news saying they’re “watching their retirement funds deplete”…

Yeah, but us 55 yo who lost 10% last month now aren't going to retire for a bit longer. . . When I made my mortgage payment last night, I was below 19K left Youngest got an internship that will pay for his teaching credentials


Maybe I will get that Sarge Green diesel Jeep-truck

[ryan stewart]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Exactly, it baffles me when I hear 40 yos talking about the news saying they’re “watching their retirement funds deplete”…

Yeah, but it still hurts to see the number go down. But yeah if youre just someone who is in a mutual (lol) or at least smart enough to be in cheap ETFs then, yeah, ignore it. For active investors its still a pain because you might be in short term plays that could only get worse. Diversity is safe but doesnt make as much money.

On the flip listening to my parents and grandparents complain about losing money when they should have shifted their asset mix to safe havens ages ago is less funny and more, SAD!

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

paper losses and gains, the plague of speculators

[ryan stewart]

Yeah, the $110k from Eastman Kodak I paid taxes on in 2020 wasn't "paper."

[Tyga11]

I'm still bullish on TSLA and always will be. June deliveries were an all time high. I'd be shocked if it goes down to $400 a share but honestly I don't care if it does because I will never sell

[M-technik-3]

Originally Posted by UncleWede

Yeah, but us 55 yo who lost 10% last month now aren't going to retire for a bit longer. . . When I made my mortgage payment last night, I was below 19K left Youngest got an internship that will pay for his teaching credentials


Maybe I will get that Sarge Green diesel Jeep-truck

Wished mine was that low but a stupid decision to marry a second time destroyed that and gave 50 percent away to blood sucking leech.

[unluky]

Originally Posted by UncleWede

Yeah, but us 55 yo who lost 10% last month now aren't going to retire for a bit longer. . . When I made my mortgage payment last night, I was below 19K left Youngest got an internship that will pay for his teaching credentials


Maybe I will get that Sarge Green diesel Jeep-truck

Exactly. I paid my house off last month and I am 52. First time I have been completely and utterly debt free since I was 16 I believe. Obviously been +networth for 30+ years, but debt free feels GOOD.

Or it did - I just bought some furniture and had 0% for a year, so even though it hurt to just not write the check - I'd be biting off my nose to spite my face.

It was nice for a month anyway! LOL

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I'm still bullish on TSLA and always will be. June deliveries were an all time high. I'd be shocked if it goes down to $400 a share but honestly I don't care if it does because I will never sell

how do you make money on a non-dividend paying stock if you will never sell?