[dzvero]

This guy needs to take his medicine !

[GuidoK]

Originally Posted by kabrichx

I do believe when I see enough of the smartest people in every field focusing on the fact that robotics and automation will eliminate roughly 33% of the current jobs in the next 10-20 years.

This is just part of that future that virtually every influential industry leader is predicting.

Thats not what I call predicting the future. Thats extrapolating something which is already happening.
Predicting the future is what Bob Lutz does: that in max. 20 years time people dont own cars/transportation anymore. That everybody uses a company owned pod that you call/summon and that it brings you to your destination and that you then pay for. That is his prediction.
Apparantly you believe that. I dont.
But that is predicting the future.

Predicting the future is not something like: "within the next 5 years the number of electric car will more than triple"
Already happening....

How old are you? Then we can look back at common timespans to see what has changed that influences our lives and how apparent that was back in the day.

[EdM5]

Great article from Lutz.
I am a traffic engineering / smart mobility expert and I think the man is spot on.

[EdM5]

Originally Posted by kabrichx

Disruption is real and happening daily.

Yes sir.

[3798j]

Yogi said it best..."It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

[wdb]

I guess there's only one thing to do -- get out there and DRIVE while we still can!

[doogee]

I think a lot of you guys might not see the whole picture.

Specifically people saying things like "People like cars and driving too much".

Have you ever spoken to someone between 18-25?

This is partly why uber is so successful.

No one wants to own a car and deal with the headache and costs or repairs anymore. Not to mention drive. No one likes driving in the grand scheme of things, and would much prefer having a car pick you up and take you where you need to go.

[insanecoder]

Originally Posted by kabrichx

I do believe when I see enough of the smartest people in every field focusing on the fact that robotics and automation will eliminate roughly 33% of the current jobs in the next 10-20 years.

This is just part of that future that virtually every influential industry leader is predicting.

At one time horse owners also stated “let them try and replace my horse...telling me I cannot use the paths into town”.

Time driving is a waste of time, even if some enjoy it.

Human productivity is increasing dramatically with the help of automation to do the mundane tasks.

Disruption is real and happening daily.

The problem in history w/ increases of human productivity (and there has been a steady and sometimes step-wise ramp up) is the question of who is really benefiting from it
One can argue in the past trickle down from the owners of capital has benefited mankind in general but often that is largely only seen in countries higher up in the production chain and only after much conflict (as seen in the era of the robber barons)
So I guess what I am proposing is that yes robotic automation will continue to spur wealth and productivity gains (many factory processes already are in part automated) but historically it has been largely going to the owners of capital.. and the lower you are in the totem pole the more "useless" to the system you become.. and that will simply exacerbate as the trend continues.. until something forces open the trickle down from the capital owners onto the seemingly undeserving (to the wealthy) though existent populations at the bottom of the chain

[geogerf]

Originally Posted by doogee

I think a lot of you guys might not see the whole picture.

Specifically people saying things like "People like cars and driving too much".

Have you ever spoken to someone between 18-25?

This is partly why uber is so successful.

No one wants to own a car and deal with the headache and costs or repairs anymore. Not to mention drive. No one likes driving in the grand scheme of things, and would much prefer having a car pick you up and take you where you need to go.

I never said it wasn't going to happen. I just said there will always be human-driven cars around, if not for the fact that people get pleasure from driving.

[ORIGIN M.]

Sure, except for his timeline.

Originally Posted by EdM5

Great article from Lutz.
I am a traffic engineering / smart mobility expert and I think the man is spot on.

[GuidoK]

Originally Posted by doogee

Have you ever spoken to someone between 18-25?

Even if all people between 18-25 will be taking part in the service Lutz speaks about, and all younger people, I think they still wont make up the majority of car owners.
In 20 years I think there will be more or at least as much carowners aged 45+ than there will be aged 16-45 (looking at how the population is divided in age groups)
So what the current scope of carowners 25+ thinks -and foremost- wants is just as important as the agegroup 18-25 if you look at a 2 decade prediction.
20 years isnt that long...
Ok, Lutz probably wont be held accountable for his prediction as like he said he'll probably be dead.
But if bimmerpost is still around by then it would make for an awesome kick of this thread

Originally Posted by EdM5

I am a traffic engineering / smart mobility expert and I think the man is spot on.

Werk je toevallig bij Goudappel ofzo?

[Blackhawk878]

20 years? I think I am fine with that. Augmented reality should be viable and I can drive all those cars that were out of reach in conventional reality.

It'll make keeping them spotless and polished a whole easier too being 1s and 0s.

What will be missed is the off chance camaraderie and bonds that cars, or anything that brings people together, builds.

I just bought a 2018 manual transmission car....can't imagine why.

[Red Bread]

I can totally see current HOV lanes and possibly even left most lanes of interstates being given over to autonomous cars in the near future. Even giving heavily trafficked routes over exclusively to self driven cars would allow for fewer traffic lights or stop signs and significantly speed up traffic flow. Hell, unlike an American driver, autonomous cars will even be able to handle traffic circles.

Meanwhile, the few holdouts for driving their own car will likely get squeezed to specific secondary routes and racetracks, where they can drive their flappy paddle, stability controlled, anti collision cars around on their "own" and feel manly.

[Never_Enough]

Originally Posted by tiltmode43

Interesting read of a dystopian future!

Excerpt:

Dealers going bye bye too? Then how will people buy their self-driving cars, Amazon? No more getting a deal & everyone must be ripped off with MSRP or more?

[Never_Enough]

Originally Posted by geogerf

I never said it wasn't going to happen. I just said there will always be human-driven cars around, if not for the fact that people get pleasure from driving.

I'm not giving up driving.

[Z K]

Originally Posted by geogerf

I never said it wasn't going to happen. I just said there will always be human-driven cars around, if not for the fact that people get pleasure from driving.

You may have human driven cars on local roads and on a race track. As Bob says in the article, it makes no sense to allow human driven cars on highways and major roads where all the cars are automated.

It'd be the same way horses and bicycles are not allowed on some roads and highways but you still see people ride them for leisure.

[wdb]

Originally Posted by doogee

I think a lot of you guys might not see the whole picture.

Specifically people saying things like "People like cars and driving too much".

Have you ever spoken to someone between 18-25?

This is partly why uber is so successful.

No one wants to own a car and deal with the headache and costs or repairs anymore. Not to mention drive. No one likes driving in the grand scheme of things, and would much prefer having a car pick you up and take you where you need to go.

Have you spoken to anyone who DOESN'T live in one of the megalopolis corridors? Because out here I can tell you that Uber is still just a German word. I don't see autonomous vehicles coming here anytime soon. The crowded corridors, maybe. But even there they'll have to coexist with those of us in cars from der hinterland, where the roads are not yet dotted with sensors. Some technologies can move fast. This isn't one of them.

[Z K]

Originally Posted by wdb

Have you spoken to anyone who DOESN'T live in one of the megalopolis corridors? Because out here I can tell you that Uber is still just a German word. I don't see autonomous vehicles coming here anytime soon. The crowded corridors, maybe. But even there they'll have to coexist with those of us in cars from der hinterland, where the roads are not yet dotted with sensors. Some technologies can move fast. This isn't one of them.

Autonomous cars don't use sensors on the road. They see the road with cameras , lidar and other sensors and act as normal drivers do. There doesn't need to be anything special about the road to allow it to operate.

[wdb]

I suppose we'll see. So far they haven't proven themselves in that regard. And the matter of coexisting with human driven cars is a huge obstacle on several fronts.

[EdM5]

Originally Posted by ORIGIN M.

Sure, except for his timeline.

You're right. I'm thinking more like 40-50 years from now

[Viffermike]

Originally Posted by EdM5

Great article from Lutz.
I am a traffic engineering / smart mobility expert and I think the man is spot on.

You also live in one of the most master-planned, progressive, societally isolationist, ethnically homogenized post-Industrial nations the Earth has ever known.

Sorry: What might work in Holland will not work in, say, India in 20 years -- much less the bulk of Central and South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, the non-rich Middle East, a good chunk of Eastern Europe ... and oh, yeah: the U.S.

I'm as open-minded as they come. But I'm also a realist. You, sir, are plainly not with a statement like that. Think globally. Your rules and innovations (and the Dutch have had many in your field) simply can't be applied in most of the world. Neither can Lutz's predictions.

[EdM5]

Originally Posted by Viffermike

You also live in one of the most master-planned, progressive, societally isolationist, ethnically homogenized post-Industrial nations the Earth has ever known.

Sorry: What might work in Holland will not work in, say, India in 20 years -- much less the bulk of Central and South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, the non-rich Middle East, a good chunk of Eastern Europe ... and oh, yeah: the U.S.

I'm as open-minded as they come. But I'm also a realist. You, sir, are plainly not with a statement like that. Think globally. Your rules and innovations (and the Dutch have had many in your field) simply can't be applied in most of the world. Neither can Lutz's predictions.

What makes you think my frame of reference is the Netherlands? I work internationally.

Agreed though, Lutz's prediction (and smart mobility in general) is primarily focussed on highly developed cities and urban scenarios. Will definitely not work in the Gobi desert, rural Somalia or Kabul.